Farmerjan's journal - Weather

[farmerjan]

Fed the calf the bottle after I got a shower at DS's and got dressed to go to the dinner... he had been on a bottle before, as well as knowing what to do with a cow... took it right down with no problems... sad that she was such a miserable dispositioned witch. DS said she was half nuts when he let her out. She is in the lot with the weaned calves from Sunday... at least she has company there.
Stopped and dropped off 15 sq bales to the friend... talked to her a few minutes as she got there from work just as DS was done unloading them...
Dinner was good... big buffet restaurant... lots and lots of food...they are a "daytime" restaurant and do special parties and such at night... rather expensive but food was good and unlimited.

Came home and talked about what to sell, what to keep, how we were going to split things up at different pastures. I told him that I think that the steers ought to get sold sooner rather than later...
There are 2 trains of thought on the cattle markets/business. Several are saying that with the low numbers that these prices might hold for several years... although the numbers are saying that there are 3-4% LESS heifers being put on feed, so that means more are being retained for replacements... NOW, that could mean that the breeding herd numbers are increasing... OR that more cows have been/are being culled with the exceptionally high prices of culls, and with farms going out of business... and that the breeding herd size is not increasing. That could go either way, as there are fewer farmers, fewer cows, more culls and fewer replacements,,, so prices will stay higher...
But then again... prices are pretty high... and the price of corn and soybeans has gone up a bit... which will mean that the price of feeding out animals will increase, which will make the price that buyers are willing to pay for feeders will drop.... and I think it is going to happen faster than some others think.

I told DS that I would rather sell sooner... maybe get $.10 less a pound this week compared to 3 -4 weeks down the road... so sell on the rising side... than to have the numbers drop and get caught with getting $.25-.50 less a lb because we held them for a few extra weeks. And I think we ought to ship all the steers, and any heifers we really don't like... and then keep the rest of the heifers... even the so-so ones, and graze them for the summer. He says we are feeding about 2-3 ton of silage a day to all the different groups... Have about 4 weeks of silage left to feed. So at 15-20 tons a week... and had about 200 tons... that is a total of maybe 10- 12 weeks ... and he has been feeding for close to 5-6 weeks.... so maybe about 1 month of silage left, more or less... Once we get this last group of cows home... there are 31 cows and calves... that 's going to be ALOT more silage for the calves... and we will group them according to size and such... but we have about 50 on silage now, plus feeding the one group of fall calving cows with the 1-3 month old calves on them...

He won't sell anything for the next 2 weeks or so...until after we get the rest of the cows home, get the preg check done, and then wean off calves according to the cows preg status... Hoping that all 31 are bred and due in Mar/April.... so all the calves would get weaned off all at once... But, the bull is still in there so some might be short bred.... we will just see next week... Some didn't calve til late, in early June, and he stuck them out there so they could very well be later bred which is to be expected.

He is planning on planting 20 acres of corn this coming year for silage... and putting another place that we cut hay/weeds off of for "free"... in sorghum/sudan grass as the tonnage is better and there are alot of weeds and junk in this place. Kinda renovate and clean the place up and it needs some grading of the ground and such. We might also be losing a place where the elderly lady passed away and don't have any idea of what is going to happen there... we don't pay anything for it, and it makes alot of hay... it is pretty decent hay there... considering... makes quite a bit .......It has not been listed for sale yet that we have heard... don't know the status of heirs or anything...

So, we discussed it all and I said that I would not wait a real long time to sell... although there seems to be fewer and fewer numbers at the stockyard sales the last 2 weeks..which would indicate that prices will stay higher as the demand for "grass cattle" will go up as the warmer green grass weather gets here. UNLESS there is some sort of financial crash... or something like a 'disease scare" or something which could cause the prices to plummet.... Like the 3 pairs he sold... he has had them for about 6 months and they sold for 1/3 more than he paid for them... so a tidy profit... and rid of some "stupid/idiot" cows....

The lull in stockyard sales might be that there are not alot of weaned size calves around... like us with cows that have 3+ month old calves on them, that will not get taken off until March-June....but the talk is that there are just not that many head of cattle around.

I still would like for any/all steers to get sold sooner rather than later... Plus it is practically February already...

Had another calf born that he found this morning... so guess we are going to keep getting some along now... Still the bulk will be born in Mar-April....

Tomorrow is vet check on Nelson's cows... long afternoon. Supposed to be low 50's but windy... she is not coming to help which is fine... but another guy that I know is coming and he normally works the chute for them... so that will be good... I can do the recording everything... filling syringes with shots, stuff like that... DS and this guy will be "mouthing them" to look at teeth to get an idea of the age...

I have to go feed the baby in the morning... then do the nurse cow and calves... then be at their farm around noon or so.... Got to make sure I have paper and clipboard and stuff...

Past time for bed...

 

[Baymule]

I like the way you analyze things to come up with a decision that makes sense. You have an impressive intellect and memory. Combine that with the common sense and wisdom gained by life experiences and you make one heck of a cattle rancher.

I’m equally impressed by that loud popping noise your son makes!

What popping noise, you ask?





That popping noise he makes when he pulls his head out of his A$$.

 

[SageHill]

I'm with you on the sell a little early - even if the price goes up a little later. The time spent waiting costs $ in feed and anything can go wrong - injury, death etc that would either cost or bring a fat ZERO $. I only have my little flock and look at what my hay bill is and how fast we go through it. $$. I can't imagine it on the large scale like you have. Even if you grow your own it's still as they say cost and materials (seed, fuel, etc) not to mention time.
LOL @Baymule almost splurted my coffee on the screen.

 

[Ridgetop]

That popping noise he makes when he pulls his head out of his A$$.

LOL @Baymule almost splurted my coffee on the screen.

Luckily I didn't have a mouthful when I laughed out loud!

I am glad that you and DS had a chance to sit down and discuss your plans. Seems he is often too busy or taken up with xgf to listen and plan with you. You are very experienced, watch themarket, and have an additional edge with yur testing at various dairies. You know what to do. He is experenced too, although I think he lets stuff go depending on on/off relationship with xgf. Also, noting some of the behaviour here with DS1, grown sons like to be in charge more.

Profit depends on $$ cost of production so early sales for $.10 less would definitely be better to me than $.50 less when everyone who held on hoping for higher prices sells because they are at the end of hay/sileage. Selling towards the top of a rising market leaves the buyer a little space for his profit so he may bid that extra penny or two. Plus you don't know what the weather will bring. Still a lot of winter left. Having hay and silage left to ride out any bad weather on the remaining cattle would be a plus.

Good luck.

 

[farmerjan]

Yeah, he definitely does more than "let things go" with all this BS with her... the back and forth and all this crap. Then she keeps showing up at the farm and being so "helpful" , I feel like it is getting shoved in my face too often... He asks my opinion and then asks other people which is fine... then says so and so told him that he should do this or that... which is 90% of the time exactly what I told him first... but it comes better from so and so... and I am getting so far over this crap. Not saying something like... so and so agrees with what you said..... or so and so said the same thing you said... but so and so said that if they were me they would do this or that...
She had to take a friend to the cancer center for a treatment, but managed to show up just as we got done and then his attention was totally directed towards her... she had Colt with her, not sure how that worked since she didn't babysit for him all day.... and I am supposed to suck it up and be civil and nice....

The vet check went pretty good... it was slow going, their chute / pen set up is not very conducive to efficiently putting the cows through... We did 81 cows.... 50 from one group, 31 in the other group. Took 3 1/2 hours.... Took about 15 minutes to change the groups around... One was a heifer that wasn't supposed to be pregnant, and wasn't, so that was good. One cow also did not even go through as she has bad legs and was being sold regardless. There were 8 out of the big group open, so 15% and there was 1 in the smaller group that had aborted... she had some after birth hanging... and could only have been 6 months max so not like she had calved and had one hiding out there....... she will get sold.
DS will haul a load for him on Friday... and they have about 22 more calves to be sold... he sold 28 a week ago... off the group of 31... and there is one heifer they can't get in the pen and across the road... going to take some working of getting them in the barn and getting her to go in with a bunch of cows... usually they just bring them across the road in a group but she takes off and no amount of trying to run her down is working... DS said they tried for an hour this morning and finally said forget it... The 22 calves (might be 26) are off the 50 cows... but they had sold a group a month or 2 ago... so I am assuming that all of the cows had calves,,,, but I don't know how many they sold...
Anyway, they were needing to cut back some numbers... so this will make 10 going to the sale on Friday... so that is a good start... They need to get back around 60... DS said.... and there were several that were quite a bit older aged cows, and they were listed as "last calf" as the preg check was going... so by this coming fall, there will be a few more sold... and no heifers were kept the last 2 years except the one we checked today that was open... she belongs to Jason's daughter... so that is good.

So, our vet check is next wed.. for the 31 cows coming home from the big pasture... hopefully on Sun or Monday.... if the ice on the road in, melts off. DS said it was still very icy this morning when he took hay up there...

Got the baby fed this morning and again this evening... he will get moved to snyder's (nurse cow pasture) in a couple days...Thought about moving him here, but hate for him to not have other calves for interaction... and interested to see if the jersey allows him to steal off her...
We have dr appts tomorrow... both at noon ... me at my chiropractor and him at the dr he was referred to and had the first appt a couple months ago... and they are within 15-20 min apart so it will work out good...I'll drop him off a few minutes early, go to my appt and then come back.
Friday he will haul a load to the stockyard for Jason, and then come meet me at the day long seminar of the Va Forage and Grasslands Assoc...or at least that is the plan... I will feed the calf early and go.

Saturday, have a 250 cow herd scheduled... they don't test but every few months... nice people... and they help to set up and tear things down... Have to be there at 12:30... will get home about 8 normally because we always get talking... actual milking is about 1:30-4:30 or so... but it is an hour away from me too... so the whole day is shot.
With the rain expected most of Friday, not calling for alot, but off and on all day... there won't be any cattle moved on Saturday anyway. So, I might as well test and get them done and out of the way.

I am going to bed... I need to get up and get going in the morning to be ready to leave here by 10 or shortly thereafter...

 

[farmerjan]

It was sort of a nice day today.... but very windy... Gusts in the 30-40 mph range. At least it was not too cold in the sun doing the cows, but the last hour started to get chillier.. It is down below 40 already... will probably get down near freezing tonight. Hit low 60's in the sun but felt like mid 40's with the strong wind.

There is a bad fire that got started south of here, said it is totally out of control and the winds are making it spread fast. It has been pointed out that we are back in the extremely dry category on the drought monitor, and we are down nearly 2 " moisture for the month which is not good.. And since it is winter, everything on the ground is dry and flammable and there is alot of "fuel " in the mountainous area where it is due to all the dead ash trees and such.

 

[SageHill]

It was sort of a nice day today.... but very windy... Gusts in the 30-40 mph range. At least it was not too cold in the sun doing the cows, but the last hour started to get chillier.. It is down below 40 already... will probably get down near freezing tonight. Hit low 60's in the sun but felt like mid 40's with the strong wind.

There is a bad fire that got started south of here, said it is totally out of control and the winds are making it spread fast. It has been pointed out that we are back in the extremely dry category on the drought monitor, and we are down nearly 2 " moisture for the month which is not good.. And since it is winter, everything on the ground is dry and flammable and there is alot of "fuel " in the mountainous area where it is due to all the dead ash trees and such.

Dang - don’t be California!
Most of us out here use an ap on our phones called WatchDuty. It gives updates fire perimeter and wind direction. Something to think about. It’s free too.