Hurricane Harvey

[Latestarter]

@frustratedearthmother hang in there and hunker down!

Indeed!

it maintains its present projected path well to your south west. You'll still be in the NE quadrant - highest surge/winds/etc. but hopefully not the eye wall.

 

[OneFineAcre]

Going to be a lot of rain
Some places may get 30 in
That's a lot of rain
And you guys are already wet aren't you ?
30 mph winds will bring down trees when the ground is wet
Trust me I know (Fran)
And a CAT 3 can still be a CAT 1 200 miles inland
Trust me I know (Hugo)
Get ready
Prepare for the worse
Particularly with your animals
Move them to a safe place if necessary

ETA:
Have a backup plan and hope you don't need it

 

[frustratedearthmother]

I re-arranged animals tonight. The bucks had a hoop house that is not going to stand up to high wind.
Tarps are off now just so it won't blow away. Moved all the does out to the big barn/pasture area. I was keeping the milkers up closer to the house for convenience - but they're all out now. That means that the bucks can have the smaller barn closer to the house.

Looks like we might have this going on for 4 or 5 days if it follows the "projected" path of veering off towards Galveston after landfall. Yay.

My only back up plan if water gets too high is to rearrange again. I've got a really high/dry drive way back to the big barn. There is a portion of the barn there that I used for a feed room that is higher than the community area of the barn. I'd have to put the does over there and the bucks in the trailer if things get worse than expected. After that... not much else I can do except to put them ALL in the stock trailer. Not a great plan at all!

Got most everything taken care of this afternoon. Not sure what tomorrow will bring at this point.

 

[Goat Whisperer]

I re-arranged animals tonight. The bucks had a hoop house that is not going to stand up to high wind.
Tarps are off now just so it won't blow away. Moved all the does out to the big barn/pasture area. I was keeping the milkers up closer to the house for convenience - but they're all out now. That means that the bucks can have the smaller barn closer to the house.

Looks like we might have this going on for 4 or 5 days if it follows the "projected" path of veering off towards Galveston after landfall. Yay.

My only back up plan if water gets too high is to rearrange again. I've got a really high/dry drive way back to the big barn. There is a portion of the barn there that I used for a feed room that is higher than the community area of the barn. I'd have to put the does over there and the bucks in the trailer if things get worse than expected. After that... not much else I can do except to put them ALL in the stock trailer. Not a great plan at all!

Got most everything taken care of this afternoon. Not sure what tomorrow will bring at this point.

Please keep us updated! Praying for no flooding issues or damage

 

[frustratedearthmother]

Please keep us updated!

I will definitely try! Not sure what will happen with connectivity or electricity at this point. Baymule was kind enough to send me her cell # and she's got mine. I'll try to text her if I can't get online and she's promised to update for me. Thankfully, we aren't in the path of a direct hit, but will most likely have a few miserable days. Time to catch up on a good book!

 

[BlessedWithGoats]

Praying for y'all! Stay safe!

 

[goatgurl]

hope all goes well with all of you in that part of the world. batten down the hatches and stay safe.

 

[OneFineAcre]

Keep safe
ETA
It sounds like you have done all that you can do
The trailer is always the final straw

 

[Devonviolet]

Oh, FEM!!! My prayers are with you all down there! We are watching the weather report on the news (recorded earlier). They are saying by the time it gets to you, the winds will have gone down, but it will be moving very slowly and dumping rain on you! With water runoff and all that rain, I'm thinking that 22' above sea level may not be enough to keep you out of flood waters. Please stay safe!!!

 

[greybeard]

The 12Z Thursday runs of our top intensity models—the HWRF, LGEM, COAMPS-TC, HMON, and DSHIPS—predicted that Harvey would be a Category 1, 3, or 4 storm at landfall. The HMON model was the most aggressive, predicting Harvey would max out at Category 4 strength with a 924 mb central pressure. However, the HMON had Harvey with a 966 mb pressure at 2 pm EDT Thursday, while the actual pressure was 979 mb, so the HMON forecast is likely overdone. The HWRF model was the most conservative, predicting Harvey would max out as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds and a 960 mb pressure. However, the HWRF had Harvey with a 984 mb pressure at 2 pm EDT Thursday, when the pressure was actually 979 mb, so this forecast is likely too conservative. The LGEM, Decay SHIPS, and COAMPS-TC models all predicted Harvey would be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, and so did NHC in their 4 pm CDTThursday advisory. This appears to be the best intensity forecast, though we cannot rule out Harvey making it to Category 4 strength, or coming ashore as a Category 2 storm.

IOW, they aren't sure how strong it will be at landfall. There has only been one cat 4 hurricane make landfall on the Texas coastal bend since the end of the 1800s and that was Carla. Came in at Port O'Conner in 1961. It had a storm surge of 22' that went inland 10 miles.
Freeport, LaMarque, Galveston 160 miles farther to the North were all innundated to some degree.
This is what Galveston (again, 160 miles north of the landfall point) looked like the morning Carla came ashore:
http://rwatts.cdyn.com/Old Galveston Photos/image/Hurricane Carla 1961.bmp