# The Numbers Game



## BrendaMNgri (Jan 5, 2017)

When this came out in Sheep! Magazine it was the first paper ever published on the subject of running the right numbers of guardian dogs, and no one to date had touched the topic (in public) in writing to the extent that I did.  People talk more about it now then they did back then, when "right numbers" was rarely discussed. Folks ran one or two dogs max and thought it was enough (it can be adequate, and then it also can be severely not enough, too).   I began with three siblings then added two siblings, and went on from there.  I always recognized dogs were pack animals and best suited to be with one another - never alone - and did best in pairs, threes or more.  Happy, content dogs work better.    Just like people! 

What is important to read  below (highlighted in red) are some of the factors that need to be considered in deciding in how many dogs is enough.  And honest, self assessment and self introspection is key.  Can you handle this?  Are you fiscally able to feed a ton of dogs?  Can you keep up with what it takes? Are you going to be there or gone all the time?  Etc. etc.

Running a pack of LGDs is complicated, expensive, at times frustrating and very time consuming.  It takes hands on work and presence.  Someone who is gone 8 hours a day at a job is probably going to have epic fail at their attempt, or at the least, a bigger struggle than someone like me who is home all day on the ranch and is able to be here and stay on top of it all. 

BUILDING a cohesive solid well-oiled LGD pack takes patience, experience, great understanding of dog behavior, pack psychology, breed quirks, individual personalities, and much more.  But the payoff, when done right, is zero stock loss.  The book I am forever struggling to get written, which already has ISBN no. assigned _("The Way of The Pack: Understanding and Living With Livestock Guardian Dogs")_ is going to touch on this in great detail, in depth and much more in terms of training and rearing to achieve this, etc.. 

At the time I wrote this I had Kangals.  I no longer raise them.  At one point I had 25 adult dogs here, and a minimum of pack conflicts.  That takes some doing.  I now just raise the SM and PM and find them most suited to my personal taste in working style and temperaments.  However, I still think for many operations, a combo of breeds can be a good idea.  I still agree with what I said then that running dogs that have skills that compliment one another - far ranging perimeter "checkers" with "stay close" breeds - is a smart way to do it, albeit sometimes easier said than done (!). 

What really  matters in any event, is the human's experience, confidence, patience and willingness to learn and grow with this - because it is an ever changing dynamic.  Nothing stays the same forever.

But honestly the Spaniards nailed it best.  Their theory is "you know you have enough dogs when you stop losing livestock"….and I have to agree. 

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*The Numbers Game: Guardian Dog Pack Size Affects Success *

by Brenda M. Negri

Published in Sheep! Magazine  -  May/June 2013 pg 50

Copyright 2013 Brenda M. Negri and Sheep! Magazine

All rights reserved, no reproduction without express permission


When it comes to efficient predator control and livestock protection using LGDs, real success usually comes from running the right number of Livestock Guardian Dogs for each situation. And sometimes its what you can’t see that indicates your livestock guardian dogs are working, and you are running them in the right numbers.


Kangal breeder Ed Bernell of Laurel, Montana, had filled his deer tags for the season when the call came from Montana Fish and Game asking how his hunting luck had run. Bernell gave them the required information and they chatted about hunting season.


And then came the question Ed wasn’t prepared to hear.


“Did you spot any sign of or did you see any wolves, during your hunt?” the agent asked.


Bernell recalls that he was taken aback by the question, then chuckled, and confidently replied “Of course not! There are no wolves around my area.”


He wasn’t prepared to hear what came next.


“Oh yes there are....” was the official’s blunt reply.


The official went on to report that not one, but several wolves had been sighted only four miles from Bernell’s 100 acre goat and sheep ranch situated on a high plateau, surrounded by large tracts of open land. Ranchers were reporting several wolves traveling through their ranches, wolf track sightings were increasing, and there was no doubt the wolves had now come over from the Yellowstone area and were moving in.


Bernell was perplexed. “I’ve never seen any!” was his reply to the official.


“But I do raise livestock guardian dogs. I have several here, mostly Kangals.”


“Then that may be why you haven’t seen or had any wolves in your area,” the official replied.


Bernell went on to share that this phone call caused him to re-think his strategy of running LGDs. Prior to this, his main concern had always been coyotes and smaller predators. Faced with wolf packs however, Ed has since decided to up his numbers of LGD’s that he runs, thus increasing his protection over his goat herd.


“I also try to get across to potential customers how important it is to run the right number of dogs to fend off wolves. People seem to think one or two LGD’s can do the trick. That is wrong. You must fight fire with fire.....and running more than just one or two LGDs also increases the chances of your dogs surviving a wolf attack. It protects your LGDs and your livestock.”


Running the appropriate number of guardian dogs will differ from one situation to the next. Factors that need to be considered include, but are not limited to:

*
Terrain

Brush or tree cover

Line of sight

Size of area

Number of livestock

Predator load

Predator types

Stockman’s presence or lack of

Fencing or lack of fencing

Age, experience, health and types of LGD’s

Other non-lethal means used in addition to LGD’s*


Wolf packs can range from as little as three to as many as twenty - or more. For most ranchers, running twenty LGDs is fiscally not possible. However, many report success in repelling wolf attacks from cattle, sheep or goats using as small a pack as four to six dogs. One Canadian client of mine runs around eight to ten dogs in country that carries a heavy predator load, and reports no losses since turning to running LGDs in a pack - along with the regular use of protective spiked protective collars.


In most successful LGD pack situations there is a combination of breeds used, incorporating both perimeter patrolling dogs and those that prefer to lie in and stay closer to the stock.


My personal experience is that there does not exist a single LGD breed out there that can accomplish it all, or is the ‘ultimate answer’ when it comes to wolf predation, and that is why I breed and run a mixture of LGD breeds, from heavy, slower, powerful Spanish and Pyrenean Mastiffs to the swifter Kangal and Anatolian/Maremma crosses. I feel that each breed has something special to bring to the table, and if raised together from puppyhood in a pack, many breeds together can combine forces to be able to make most predators think twice on picking on their livestock.


The ultimate goal is to dissuade the wolves from choosing an ‘easy meal’, and ultimately, making them go elsewhere to hunt. Ideally, there is little if any confrontation between the two thus saving the rancher the heartache of injured or killed LGDs, and serving the conservationist’s goal of preserving the predators and not resorting to lethal measures.


Running LGD’s in a large pack is an art, and part science tempered with some luck. Not all dogs work or meld well in a pack situation. And, if they were not raised amongst a pack of dogs as pups, it can take some time to transition a pup or young dog into a pack hierarchy.


As someone who breeds LGDs full time and runs an adult and adolescent pack of twenty to twenty two dogs at any given time, not including litters, I can vouch for the amount of work it takes and dedication on the part of the owner. The rancher or farmer must be extremely confident in their dog handling abilities or they won’t last long in this endeavor. Those not comfortable around very large or giant LGD breeds with a reputation for thinking on their own, will probably not succeed, or at best, have limited success running a large pack of LGD’s, and would perhaps be better off trying to incorporate other non-lethal means into their retinue of protection options for their livestock.


Successes are out there. Ed Bernell in Montana is one such case; also in Montana a cattle rancher reports great success using four Komodor/Akbash cross LGDs who live with the cattle full time; the Lockhart Ranch of Debden, Saskatchewan is another using a large pack of LGDs to protect sheep and cattle; since I began running LGDs in a large pack here the coyotes and lion have stayed clear of the area surrounding my ranch, and my dogs have killed stray dogs attempting to attack either my livestock or my neighbor’s.


In a recent Farm Show Magazine article contributing editor Jim Ruen did a small write up on my dogs called “Pack Raised Dogs Fight Harder”. Indeed, I have noticed that pups coming up through the ranks of a large dog pack are by nature, exposed to more conflict and play fighting than they would otherwise. From puppyhood, they learn how to tackle one another and defend themselves, as they’d need to as adults if attacked by feral dogs, wolves or lion. I liken this to the ‘school of hard knocks’ you often hear people refer to, and just like with people, what doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.


In that regard, I note many of my clients tell me time and again, my pack raised pups seem to be more savvy, confident and capable at earlier ages than pups they have bought from non-pack raised environments, and again, I attribute this not so much to my upbringing, but to the lessons the pup has learned from my large pack.


Repelling predators is more than just picking the right color or breed of LGD; much more. More often with LGD’s its a numbers game, combined with the use of other strategies of non-lethal measures, and as always, participation and willingness to think out of the box on the part of the stockman.



*Three "Old World" LGD breeds that can help amp up your non-lethal predator control include:*


*The Kangal: *Swift, intense, primitive, intelligent and capable of covering a lot of territory, this ancient Turkish breed is an excellent choice for experienced LGD handlers in big predator country. Their courage in confrontations with predators is legendary, as is their endurance and strength.


*Spanish Mastiffs:* Native to Spain, the heavyweights of the LGD world have enormous strength and power; although slower than lighter breeds, they stay close to their livestock and are extremely formidable in a fight. A complex breed, they are somewhat aloof, steady and trustworthy with their owner but usually highly suspicious of strangers.


*Pyrenean Mastiffs:* Another Spanish breed, related to but larger than its French relative, the Great Pyrenees, this docile appearing giant has tremendous courage, tenacity and a fierce protective instinct, and is extremely intelligent. They are very people-friendly as a whole and make a great LGD for smaller family farmsteads with more human presence.

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## Alexz7272 (Jan 5, 2017)

Thank you for sharing this!!


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## Bruce (Jan 5, 2017)

BrendaMNgri said:


> The rancher or farmer must be extremely confident in their dog handling abilities or they won’t last long in this endeavor.



Doesn't that become a "which came first" question? If one isn't already a confident trainer of LGDs, they can't run a pack of LGDs.


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## Southern by choice (Jan 5, 2017)

Couldn't agree more! 

Your list is dead on. IMO

Running a pack does take knowledge and many simply are not going to be able to do it.
When you have already lazy people that do not take time or have little patience and their solution to everything is a shock collar there is no way they are going to handle this.

Something that is rarely mentioned is there is always the chance your LGD may not come out alive when engaging a pack of predators. Many do not want to think about this but it should always be kept in the back of their mind.  Keep in mind the vet bills associated with treating the dogs that have had an engagement.

I am not a fan of siblings UNLESS the breeder knows what they are doing. Too many are not paired well and often ends in a nightmare.


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## BrendaMNgri (Jan 5, 2017)

Good points brought up by both of you - 
I've had the sibling thing going on here since day one and its worked for me wonderfully and I've been able to get my customers to run them without issues too - but then my dogs and pups come up in this multi-generational pack that is like a family.  There is a "vibe" here - support and love, compassion and understanding - I know sounds corny but - so far, I've had good luck.  
Anyhow, I am a huge fan of having folks look into other means of predator deterrents besides a dog or two, and that helps those who aren't really cut out to run packs.


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## NH homesteader (Jan 5, 2017)

So,  for me a LGD would primarily be for little critters, maybe up to coyotes (they don't like to come as close to the house as the goats are though).  I honestly could never afford to feed an entire pack! 2 dogs is tops for me!

I happily do not have wolves here. How on earth can you keep anything safe from wolves? Yikes.

Edit: in fact  the presence of wolves is one of my primary reasons to rule out a place to live,  if we ever relocate!


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## Southern by choice (Jan 5, 2017)

BrendaMNgri said:


> There is a "vibe" here - support and love, compassion and understanding - I know sounds corny but - so far, I've had good luck.



I don't think it is corny at all. 
I believe that is what makes great dogs. Genetics only go so far!
Firm believer in partnering, trusting, loving and encouraging a dog. 

At the same time I believe there are those that just carry a gift as well.  Some of us are able to communicate with our dogs, some cannot.
I have had a few come out and visit the pups (I keep them a long time) and I see the "look"... I respond the same every time. "I know you think I'm nuts, that's ok but the proof is in the pudding and I know these dogs."


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## babsbag (Jan 5, 2017)

Excellent article.  And this is why I have 4 dogs on 5 acres, hopefully soon to be be 8 more acres. 
*
Terrain
Brush or tree cover
Line of sight
*
My goats can be 400' away from the barn and totally out of my sight. I have lots of trees, ravines, and hills, even on 5 acres.  I have dogs that go with the herd and dogs that stay at the barn, especially if I have goats still at the barn. And it isn't always the same dogs. I have one that hates to leave her herd and it really bothers her that some stay and eat and others go out to graze. She isn't sure where she should be and she usually makes the quick perimeter run and comes back to the barn and then settles on a spot where she can go either way in an instance.  It warms my heart to see her like this since she is my one year old "never thought she would grow up" LGD.


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## BrendaMNgri (Jan 6, 2017)

SBC I know that "look" have seen it many a time in a pup in a litter and they inevitably turn out to be the barn burner who aces everything - total naturals, the best there is.  Babsbag sounds like you have some great guardians.


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## dejavoodoo114 (Jan 6, 2017)

Well written! Thank you for sharing!


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