# Heads on a swivel you folks on Eastern Seaboard. Flo's coming.



## greybeard

No, not that Flo.

This Flo:


 

Already a Cat1 hurricane, Florence will be a Cat4 storm by late Tuesday and is anticipated to remain at Cat 4 right up until landfall late Thursday afternoon, probably somewhere along one of the Carolina coasts assuming the models are accurate. Cat4 wind=130-156 mph or 113-136 kts. 

_Hurricane Florence is centered near 24.4n 56.3w at 09/1500 UTC or
650 nm se of Bermuda moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt (75mph) with
gusts to 80 kt (93mph) . Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and
approach the southeastern U.S. Coast on Thursday. Florence is
forecast to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and
is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Thursday._
.


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## farmerjan

Already talking about here on our local news.  Depending on it's course, we could get some nasty wind and rain too, 150 plus miles from the coast over here in the mountains.  @Mini Horses  will be in the brunt when it hits even if it turns up the coast.


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## OneFineAcre

We are watching very closely
Its not looking good for us


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## OneFineAcre




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## Southern by choice

We are praying that it turns.


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## greybeard

cantore has made a living and a lot of $$$ off other people's misery....but it's nothing new. Hurricane Carla propelled Dan Rather into the national spotlight in 1961 by leaving Houston (he was a sportscaster and part time weather reporter there at KHOU) and riding out the hurricane from the weather station on Galveston Island. He and his cameraman broadcast from that vantage point until power was lost. All his broadcasts got immediately sent to the wire services world and suddenly, he was a nationwide household name. In one of those broadcasts, was the very first TV broadcast of a radar image of a hurricane.


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## Southern by choice

Very cool @greybeard. Thanks for posting that.


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## farmerjan

Neat broadcast.


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## Mini Horses

Yeah, we are going to get sledge hammered!! We had 6" of rain last night....almost 6 the day before.    Now this.

Last week every farmer alive was cutting corn, even if it needed to go to a dryer.  Better than losing it.   The fields are so wet now that they can't get heavy equipment in, so wait it will.  More coming!  

If you think feed prices were high before, get ready!   With the weather issues across the country there will be huge crop losses.  What's out there will cost more.  A lot more!

Worked in a WalMart today and let me tell you, HUGE traffic!!!  This one went thru over 30 pallets of water -- no bottled in the store by 3PM  Bread -- practically gone.  LOT of empty shelves.  People are peparing. 

I went this AM and got shavings, hay, feed...to last at least 10 days.   Re-bedded the goats, put out hay in a holder.  They have MORE than enough good pasture but, dairy doesn't do rain.   So I got them used to this hay today while they could still graze and mix it all up. Re bedded all so it was done for a few days...xtra dry & next to their area, along with more hay.   The minis are are fine with ample everything.  Chickens...good to go.   I will buy generator gas tomorrow, in case.  Car & truck both have full tanks.   Plenty of food & wine.  Then -- just wait & pray. Not much else to do.


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## Bunnylady

UNCW has cancelled classes for the week, and issued a voluntary evacuation for its students.


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## Donna R. Raybon

Make certain propane tank is tied down tight!  Nothing worse than one of those 500 gallon ones floating, breaking free!!!  All are in my prayers as it sounds pretty bad, what is coming!


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## Baymule

Don't forget the generator oil! 

Things I learned by living in hurricane country,

1. Bake a huge pan of brownies. Aw hell, bake 2! 
2. Buy a box of cheap wine or whatever your taste buds desire. When a tree falls on your house and it is raining on the inside, eat your brownies, drink your wine. It will still be raining, but you won't care.
3. Buy brand new plastic trash cans with lids, place in various places and fill with water. This will enable you to water livestock, bathe, and flush toilets.
4. Fill all pots and containers with water for washing hands and cooking.
5. Place 5 gallon buckets in bathrooms for flushing toilet. Pour water directly in toilet, it will flush.
6. Take in friends that live in a flood zone or trailer homes. 
7. Bread is stripped from stores. Bake some before the storm hits.
8. Buy flour tortillas or make them.
9. Cook a large roast for sandwiches or for rolling up in flour tortillas.
10. Boil eggs for a quick snack.
11. If you have empty freezer space, fill containers with water and freeze. This will help keep freezer cold.
12. Stock up on feed and hay for animals.
13. Have a BBQ pit, pile wood in dry place, have plenty of charcoal and lighter fluid. Or have a gas grill with plenty of propane bottles.
14. Candles. Matches. Oil lamps. Flashlights.
15. Canned soup and crackers. This is comfort food when you are sitting in the dark and a hurricane is hammering at your home.
16. Paper plates, paper towels and disposable cups.
17. Fill all prescriptions.
18. Anything outside that is loose, put it in a shed, barn or garage. Tie down everything you can.
19. Halter your livestock with your contact info and address written on the halters, Spray paint your address on their side. 
20. If YOU live in a flood zone, load your animals up and LEAVE.

Been there, done that.


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## Donna R. Raybon

Bleach pen phone number on horses rump works well! Bit trickier on longer haired critters like goats.


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## frustratedearthmother

Solar landscape lights are cheap and give a nice glow in the evenings.  During the aftermath of Ike when we had no power for 2.5 years (felt that way, lol) we loved them. 

French press for coffee, camp stove with those little gas canisters are great to cook on.  

My thoughts and prayers are with ya'll!


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## Baymule

21. Duct tape. It fixes almost everything.
22. New tarps and a roll of some very heavy duty plastic. Some lumber and nails/screws for holding the tarp/plastic down. If laying on a roof, run the lumber up and down vertically, not horizontally. Horizontally, the boards will catch the water run off and make it leak worse. 
23. SAVE RECIEPTS for anything spent to minimize damage to your home. Most insurance will reimburse you 100% on expenses that you spent to keep more damage from happening.


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## Mini Horses

RAIN -- we have had so much along Carolinas & VA already.  This storm is packing huge amounts of more rain.  We all know the flooding, downed trees, etc.    Flooding is going to be worse than they think because we have many road areas closed from just the fronts on top of us now.   My farm is high but leaving to go far is near impossible with these events.     Generator gas gathering is today's job.   In case.  I'm collecting my thoughts over coffee now …  done with pasture moves and nose counts.   Did a general "look around"  while out there.   I think we are mostly ok.    Picking up some extra propane for the outside cooker in case we need it for more than a hamburger.  Will grab a couple loaves of bread for the freezer -- I don't use much but may over weekend.  Plenty of PB&J.    Also freezing some xtra jugs of water in case someone needs it for a cooler or their frig.

Tape, batteries, candles, etc.  I'm good on all that already.

Right now it looks like NC will get direct -- can change -- but I am only 12 miles above NC line and this Southern area of VA is getting hit hard.    Navy pulling ships out of harbor.


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## Bunnylady

Mini Horses said:


> Navy pulling ships out of harbor.



There were dozens of rip-current rescues over the weekend locally; we have now officially had a State of Emergency declared. Some of the school buildings are used as evacuation shelters, so school will not be in session starting tomorrow.


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## greybeard

farmerjan said:


> Neat broadcast.


I was 11 when it happened, and was holed up with the rest of my family SE of Houston as Carla battered us with mostly heavy rain and frequent tornado warnings. We were quite familiar with Dan Rather, as he had been the guy that did the radio broadcasts of the Houston Buffs games.  It was a big deal then, seeing those maps, listening to to the guys at the weather station explain stuff, and it began a lifelong fascination of weather events for me. Power went out some hours after Carla made landfall at Port O'Conner and made her curve to the NE.  Carla was a HUGE storm, covered almost the entirety of the Gulf of Mexico and we were on the 'dirty' side of it.  An 18 1/2' storm surge came with it at Port O'conner area and 150 miles to the north it pushed water  high enough to float Battleship Texas off it's berth and topple a statue of Sam Houston that had stood for decades. I snuck out of the house thru the garage in the height of it, just to stand in the horizontal rain for a few minutes......I wanted to see what it was really like.

Sandy got the 'super' notoriety simply because of where in landed. Katrina was a political football disaster and tragedy only because of the Mississippi River.  Ike was powerful and compact and hit a main channel in a resort area. Harvey, really wasn't much of a storm if you take away the extended time it stuck around. Carla, was just a strong monster and today still ranks as the most intense (Dvorak 'T' scale) Atlantic  hurricane ever to make landfall. (Saffir Simpson 1-5 scale only measures wind speed)

Everyone remembers the before/after pictures of Bolivar Peninsula when Ike came in 2008, but Ike wasn't the first hurricane to wipe most of Bolivar clean. The difference? Ike made a direct hit on Bolivar, Carla did it, from 150 miles away.


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## RollingAcres

My thoughts are prayers are with y'all. Stay safe!


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## greybeard

Donna R. Raybon said:


> Make certain propane tank is tied down tight! Nothing worse than one of those 500 gallon ones floating, breaking free!!!


I still have one sitting in my pasture that belongs to one of the neighbors...a year after it floated here.




For me, making sure the livestock had water was not a problem, Ike, Harvey or Rita.

Do the best you can to survive the coming storm. It's all you can do.



> camp stove with those little gas canisters are great to cook on



Winner!
(the day before the flood..had coffee from the same source earlier during the day)


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## greybeard

Sounds like Flo will be a rainmaker for sure.

_ Florence is likely to make landfall on Thursday evening or Friday morning on the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina, and the odds continue to increase that Florence will stall on Friday and meander near or over the coast for several days, making the hurricane a devastating rainfall and coastal flooding threat...............
*Florence: an extreme rainfall threat*
Our top five models all agree that the trough of low pressure that was expected to turn the hurricane to the north late this week will be too weak to do so, as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. This “blocking ridge” is likely to block Florence’s forward progress. Florence is expected to stall and wander near or over the coast for as many as four days, potentially becoming the “Harvey of the East Coast”, dumping prodigious amounts of rain. If a significant portion of the storm’s circulation remains over water, as occurred last year with Hurricane Harvey’s stall over Southeast Texas—or even if Florence were to move into the higher terrain of western North Carolina and then stall—the rain from Florence may break all-time state records for rainfall from a hurricane or tropical storm. North Carolina’s state rainfall record from a hurricane is 24.06” from Hurricane Floyd of 1999, South Carolina’s is 18.51” from Tropical Storm Jerry of 1995, and Virginia’s is 27.00” from Hurricane Camille of 1969. There is also the danger that Florence could make landfall, then emerge back over water and re-intensify, increasing its rainfall potential._

Dr. Jeff Masters


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## Bunnylady

The historic benchmarks here used to be Hazel (1954) and Donna (1960). My first storm after moving here was Diana (1984). I'd seen a few storms after that, but what Hugo (1989) did to Charleston and Charlotte boggled the mind. If what they are saying about Florence plays out, it could be the damage of Hugo and the flooding of Floyd (1999)

(Incidentally, Floyd was a "double whammy." Our state had been saturated by the deteriorated mess that was Dennis only a couple of weeks before, so there had been no time to recover when Floyd came along. That official total of 24" doesn't begin to tell the story.)


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## greybeard

One thing about storm benchmarks..the bar keeps getting moved upwards. Stork club and restaurant Galveston Tx.
(Harvey hadn't been added when this photo was taken,but it was not as high as Carla, or ike)
Can't judge it from the picture but the Carla mark is actually about 4' above the sidewalk surface.


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## Baymule

It was just announced that the governor of South Carolina has issued a mandatory evacuation for the entire coast line.  Everybody to be gone by noon tomorrow. I hope they took notes on Houston's hurricane Rita evacuation.


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## Donna R. Raybon

I remember being 13 and visiting Gulfport the summer after Camille.  Blocks and blocks of concrete sidewalks and steps up to houses that were no longer there.  Here and there a HUGE ship way up on shore, beached!


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## OneFineAcre

Bunnylady said:


> There were dozens of rip-current rescues over the weekend locally; we have now officially had a State of Emergency declared. Some of the school buildings are used as evacuation shelters, so school will not be in session starting tomorrow.



It looks like she is going to come on shore right on top of you and head straight to me 
We are 2 hours inland and WRAL (Raleigh) says we are looking at an 80% chance of tropical storm winds and 15 inches of rain.
Gosh I hope not.


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## greybeard

Strongest (and largest) wind field will be to the North and to the Northwest of the eye's landfall point. Same for the storm surge. A lot of wind tho, can be dissipated by hilly terrain and even tall forests, if any are located in the path. All 5 models now indicate NC as the most likely landfall point, but NAM (North America Mesoscale) model is really interesting.
Moving WNW now, but a slight nudge to the NW is expected sometime late on Wed. Considering the northern 1/2 of the 'cone of uncertainty' would be about 100 miles, that would put landfall closer to Virginia if not on the Va coast.  And, if current NAM is incorrect and GFS is correct, the storm will make a complete circle (clockwise path) off shore and then where it comes ashore at is anyone's guess but should give folks an extra day before landfall.


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## Southern by choice

@OneFineAcre  That is a better report than what I heard... not good but still better.
We saw that over us it was still expected to be Cat 2... and could go as far as Greensboro. 
I am just hoping it lessens in strength and turns completely for all of our sake's.
Very scary for those on the coast especially. 

We will be moving a bunch of animals and securing them in stalls. Most of our fences are in the woods... so, if a tree comes down there go the goats and dogs.
We flood here frequently so we make put down some concrete block to use for "stepping" stones. UGH.


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## OneFineAcre

Southern by choice said:


> @OneFineAcre  That is a better report than what I heard... not good but still better.
> We saw that over us it was still expected to be Cat 2... and could go as far as Greensboro.
> I am just hoping it lessens in strength and turns completely for all of our sake's.
> Very scary for those on the coast especially.
> 
> We will be moving a bunch of animals and securing them in stalls. Most of our fences are in the woods... so, if a tree comes down there go the goats and dogs.
> We flood here frequently so we make put down some concrete block to use for "stepping" stones. UGH.



It said 80 % chance of at least tropical storm winds
And they are calling that 4 plus days out 
They said we could have 90 mph winds
I think it's going to be bad
Real bad


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## Donna R. Raybon

The big danger the news is saying is that it will stall out and dump huge amounts of rain from coast to over a hundred miles inland.  Even if where you are has always been safe from flooding this is record setting rainfall!  Here in east Tennessee TVA has been drawing down lakes to be ready for rain expected.


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## Bayleaf Meadows

Here's an article that addresses some goat issues in a hurricane-  https://www.hobbyfarms.com/flooding-lessons-hurricane-harvey-preparation-goats/


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## greybeard

OneFineAcre said:


> I think it's going to be bad
> Real bad


My thoughts on it as well. It's not a matter of 'if'..........it's just and  only a matter of where.

I'm also keeping an eye on Issac and this un-named little jewel...

_
Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
western Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico are associated
with a surface trough and are showing some signs of organization.
This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited development.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development later in
the week, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday
while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coast of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday._


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## babsbag

The east coast drowns and the west coast burns...stay safe my friends.


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## Mini Horses

I'm 75 miles from Bunnylady.   I remember the flooding there and I live right outside of Franklin, Va, which has a river going thru it (Blackwater River).  In '99 that hurricane had so much rain that the river was something like 22' over flood stage, with runoff and all.   The town had water up to 2nd story of downtown buildings.  My own farm was wet but not in any way flooded.  However, roads in & out were. I was living in a little camper trailer while building my house. 

This little town is sure feeling concerns with the huge rain predicted on top of current stuff.   There was a great amount of flood control implemented after that hurricane but if you live in the hole on the banks of a river -- well, you're gonna get wet!

Hope you guys in NC can get selves & animals onto higher ground to ride this out.

I set up a large hay rack in the goat barn yesterday.  Holds a large square bale easily -- spread out.  So everyone can eat ok and it's pretty good with waste.  No one can climb in it except a couple hens who decided to lay their eggs there today.    They won't with the goats all inside but I had them enjoying another pasture with lots of browse & grass.  Tomorrow too -- it helps keep the new shavings cleaner and they don't want hay when full of other goodies. -- save that.

Will set some big water troughs up for flushing, etc.  That helps to allow generator to power A/Cs rather than well, until showers, etc.  I have it to plug into house circuit but control breakers/appliances with big draw, when a 220 is needed.   It is all a huge inconvenience!     I'm certain net will be interrupted.  Storms do that with satellite service.  None of this is sounding good.  At least I'm not looking at having to boat out and have animals swimming like GB last year.  Now THAT makes this seem far milder.


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## greybeard

Cell phones generally still work if the power outage isn't 100% grid wide, and if you are on sat, it works 'much more gooder' here. Land lines usually still work too, tho the ringer may not. At least provide plenty with some contact info. 
Stay safe, stay dry.


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## Southern by choice

Lightening and thunder here since 7 pm... rain and rain and rain... hurricane hasn't even hit yet.


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## BlessedWithGoats

I'm praying for y'all.


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## greybeard

Southern by choice said:


> Lightening and thunder here since 7 pm... rain and rain and rain... hurricane hasn't even hit yet.


Probably not from Florence, but it would be helpful if the storm hit in an area that was bone dry.
You are a long long ways from 25.9 N 62.4 W and there's blue water with no clouds between NC and Florence yet. Like most moisture events, what you (and I) are currently getting is coming off that moisture maker called Gulf of Mexico which is still being pulled in by a big low that is really the leftover Gordon. .




3 named storms visible and one that wants to be. That disorganized looking mess barely east of Yucatan is going to be my next weather maker.

The Tidewater and even Chesapeake regions are beginning to look more favorable as a landing point for Florence.


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## farmerjan

It is cloudy and CALM....  the calm before the storm.  It is so STILL , yesterday was perfectly quiet and still and this morning is the same... you feel like  it is waiting for something.... and we are.  We will not get anything like what the coast is bracing for, but they are saying anywhere from 5 to 15 inches of rain here with winds from 30 to 75 mph....If it stalls we could get devastating amounts of rain also.  Again, NOTHING like what the coast is bracing for but still very significant for here.  Going out to pick up some extra feed this morning and will test a farm this aft. and do another one tomorrow instead of Thurs., then batten down the hatches.  Praying for the ones closer to the coast.  We are 150  + miles directly west from the coast, with a mountain range inbetween, and twice that from where it is expected to come ashore.


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## Baymule

Land line phones usually work if you have an old fashioned phone that does not have a plug for electricity, like for a cordless phone. When hurricane Rita threatened Houston and millions of people hit the road, the town we used to live in was over run with frightened people who ran out of gas and were stranded. I spent nights at our church to help out. The multiline phones did not work. I mentioned that if anyone had a regular phone, it would work. A lady that worked at the town library remembered seeing one in the back room on a shelf, so we went to go get it. Sure enough, it did work and people we sheltered were able to call friends and family to let them know that they were ok. 

So this might be a good time to buy a cheap phone that has no fancy frills, just to have around.


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## OneFineAcre

A little light reading compliments of the North Carolina Department of Emergency Management.  This is the shift briefing as of 7am this morning.


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## Latestarter

Baymule said:


> So this might be a good time to buy a cheap phone that has no fancy frills, just to have around.


 And if you're really into retro, try to find one with a ROTARY dial!


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## Southern by choice

@greybeard  yeah, that was just our daily thunderstorm... we have them everyday right now. Everything is already saturated. 

Had a friend contact for an old friend that I'd lost contact with. They had offered their place they just bought for us and all our animals... they haven't even moved in yet... and shared there are plenty of buildings, fences, and an empty house. They are out of state.
I feel so humbled that they would offer this to us. 

We have no trailers to move our livestock anyway. But I sure thought it was so very kind and generous.

This single event that hasn't even happened yet does have me thinking. Perhaps we need to reduce our herd to the point of being able to load and roll. 
I have a busy day today to prepare. So worried for all the folks farther East and on the coast. 

My daughter is East and won't come home. I am going to ask DH to send her a text and tell her "this is your father! Come home!"
Don't care how old she is she is still my baby girl and always will be. She is in a flood plane.


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## Bunnylady

The eastbound lanes of I-26 from Charleston to Columbia, SC are being reversed to aid in the process of evacuation. The subject of lane reversal for I-40 from Wilmington has been explored in the past, but a recent study has indicated that it might do more harm than good.

Local folks seem to be taking this seriously. Some folks have already evacuated; there are lines at gas stations and grocery stores as people prepare to either brace in place or make a run to higher ground. There is always the worry that the media drama which inevitably surrounds tropical weather may lead to been-there-done-that complacency or, conversely, panic, but what I've seen so far has been tense but sensible.


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## greybeard

we are getting almost daily tstorms too. Short duration but it's adding up but it is that time of year.

Elevation versus gradient have to be considered when deciding whether to evacuate. 60 miles to my NE and North, the terrain turns decidedly more hilly and the water runs off much better than here in the flatlands. My time in North Carolina, I remember a lot of hilly terrain, but that may not be the case in your daughter's area. I would certainly implore her to leave if there is a real danger & risk of flooding.  May only happen once in a lifetime but that is still in one's life.

_
 imagery indicates that the
amplifying large-scale flow pattern across CONUS is inducing a
downstream ridge over the western Atlantic, with a high pressure
cell centered northwest of Bermuda. This blocking ridge pattern is
expected to keep Florence moving west-northwestward to northwest at
around 15 kt for the next 48 hours or so. However, embedded within
the large-scale flow is a weak shortwave trough over the central and
southern Plains that is expected to eject out northeastward and
weaken the ridging across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S.,
*causing Florence to slow down significantly in 72 hours as the
powerful hurricane approaches the Carolinas. On days 4 and 5, an
even slower motion or drift to the west and northwest is forecast,
which will exacerbate the heavy rainfall threat.*_


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## Mini Horses

Mini Horses said:


> I'm 75 miles from Bunnylady. I remember the flooding there and I live right outside of Franklin, Va, which has a river going thru it


MY BAD -- I'm thinking Williamston, not Wilmington   I'm 4 hrs from you....still, not far.


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## Donna R. Raybon

Highway patrol heavy on I 40 and I 81 here!  Traffic heavy going west and north.

This storm is as wide as the state of Tennessee is long!!!!  Authorities are saying you do not have to be in flood plain as this is such a huge storm it is going to flood where it has never flooded in previous storms.


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## Bunnylady

Just when you think it can't get any crazier, some model runs start showing a building high pressure ridge stopping all forward progress just off the NC coast, then a slow southward track with actual landfall down near Georgia. I thought the models were supposed to converge the closer you get to landfall, not diverge.


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## Mini Horses

You just never know!  Seems a very strong front in Ohio---wow -- is holding the northern track down. 

One thing we do know we can depend upon -- we are all going to get huge amounts of RAIN!   On the coast, with ocean surge, it will be an even worse situation.

Appears my area will get less wind, still heavy winds.  Whew.  Sorry about everyone else -- we just know this rascal is certainly going to impact a lot of areas and people!!!   It isn't a false threat for those further to the North, just how things move. 

Outer Banks people in NC are at a pivotal area.   Evacuations are there....some stayed, some left.  Here, Navy moved ships and 75+ planes.  Flooding on the base is a real threat.
Changes from hour to hour.


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## goatgurl

my heart just hurts for all of you east coasters.  this sure isn't going to be pretty.  the rest of us can only watch and pray for your safety.  please get your prepping done and then hunker down and stay safe.


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## greybeard

Bunnylady said:


> Just when you think it can't get any crazier, some model runs start showing a building high pressure ridge stopping all forward progress just off the NC coast, then a slow southward track with actual landfall down near Georgia. I thought the models were supposed to converge the closer you get to landfall, not diverge.


No..different models are looking at different aspects. The consensus part comes by looking at the ensemble map. Even with it tho, the steering currents being expected to collapse about the same time Florence hits land throws a big ? mark into the picture.

 By the usual standards, Florence is just average size. From today's discussion at 8:45EDT:

_"Florence’s top sustained winds were raised to 140 mph by the National Hurricane Center at 5 pm Tuesday. Sustained hurricane-force winds now extend up to 60 miles out from Florence’s center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 175 miles. These numbers may grow even larger as Florence matures and expands. At its current size, Florence rates as an average-sized hurricane._"




Florence's size is indicated by the heavy blue line... between the dotted lines is "average" (actually, Flo is closer the lower average than a higher average.

When Ike was a Cat 4 hurricane, it had hurricane force winds (minimum of 75 mph) extending 120 miles from the eye and tropical storm winds (39mph minimum) extended 175 miles from the center of the storm. 
Florence has:
_Florence’s top sustained winds were raised to 140 mph by the National Hurricane Center at 5 pm Tuesday. Sustained hurricane-force winds 75mph minimum)  now extend up to 60 miles out from Florence’s center, with tropical storm rated winds reaching nearly 175 miles from the eye toward the NW quadrant_


This may change of course once the eye wall replacement is 100% coalesced and the eye itself contracts back to a more efficient size (the eye right now is about 30 miles across, but only because the original eyewall collapsed and was replaced by a new eyewall further out)

It definitely could stall, whether it happens just offshore or once it makes landfall is the big question and concern. Early Friday onward is going to be a puzzle..

_As Florence nears the coast on Thursday night, wind shear may increase to a moderate 10 – 20 knots, and the shallower waters near the coast will provide less oceanic fuel. Florence will most likely be a Category 3 near landfall—assuming it crosses the coast, that is. The steering currents driving Florence toward the East Coast will collapse on Friday, and models now agree the storm is likely to stall somewhere within 100 miles on either side of the coast, perhaps for one or two days.

The 12Z Tuesday run of the European model introduced a new and very distressing possibility: Florence stalling just offshore of North Carolina near Wilmington for roughly a day, then moving southwestward along and just off the South Carolina coast on Saturday, and finally making landfall close to Savannah, Georgia, on Sunday—all while still a hurricane. This outlandish-seeming prospect gained support from the 18Z run of the GFS model. It painted a very similar picture, with a landfall a bit farther north, near Charleston, on Sunday. The 18Z track from the experimental GFS FV3 model is very similar to the GFS track._


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## farmerjan

DC has been declared ....something...  not a disaster area since it hasn't been hit yet.... but eligible for disaster relief.  All National Guard have been mobilized in VA now, so they will be able to move to where ever they are needed at a moments notice.  Camp Lejune has been evacuated. All coastal areas are under evacuation orders. Hampton Roads & surrounding areas are  MANDATRY evacuation. They say it is moving a little slower and now we may not get hit til later on Friday rather than Thurs night/Fri morn. We don't need the rain, so would be glad to send it somewhere to anyone who needs it......Please put in your request and we'll see if we can send it your way..

My son works for VDOT.  He said  that they are just waiting to see what it does as he often has gotten sent to other areas to help.  We got some cattle moved around and I have extra feed and stuff at the barn where I keep my nurse cows.  Have to work Wed aft then will do last minute stuff on Thursday.  Just started fall calving, but at least it is not cold and they are all experienced cows and not near any flood prone areas so hope they take care of the babies, or cross their legs and hold off.  Usually the change in atmospheric pressure will cause them to calve though....
We were going to ship a load of calves on Friday.... not gonna happen this week.  Had a BIG poultry swap  (twice a year) to go to Saturday... I hope they cancel it and try to reschedule.  It is closer to Richmond and closer to the coast so more rain and wind....  I won't go in that terrible weather.

OH WELL, it is hurricane season.....


----------



## babsbag

farmerjan said:


> OH WELL, it is hurricane season.....



Is that like fire season, only different?  It is funny what people learn to expect based on where they live.


----------



## Bunnylady

babsbag said:


> Is that like fire season, only different?  It is funny what people learn to expect based on where they live.



Oh, we have a "fire season" too; it occurs during the springtime dry spell. Even a lot of the folks who live here don't realize it, but large swathes of the southern forests are fire-dominated ecosystems. Managing woodlands here may involve "controlled burns" to limit the buildup of combustible debris (like downed trees from hurricanes). Fortunately, most wild fires in the southeast aren't big enough to make the news, and structures threatened or lost are usually limited to the property of a person who got careless when burning yard debris. 

But yes, there is a large part of the year when we keep an eye on the tropics, knowing that the warm water may generate potentially killer storms. Hurricane season is understood to run from June through November, but we have seen tropical cyclones develop outside of that time period, both earlier and later in the year.


----------



## Goat Whisperer

farmerjan said:


> DC has been declared ....something... not a disaster area since it hasn't been hit yet


DC is already a disaster. They don't need to declare anything 


Okay... back off to my corner...


----------



## Southern by choice




----------



## farmerjan

Declared DC a state of emergency....  Yep it's really a disaster at it's best.  At it's worst???????
Storm looks to be trending more to the south and west now, looks like the Carolinas are going to take a more direct hit at landfall... and heading across into Ga?????


----------



## greybeard

Yes, into Northern Ga, but depends on steering currents in the next 24 hours.
Pretty good news for NC and Va, not so much for SC, Ga, Tenn, and Ky.
A good model view at the following link. Let the page load, and each of the little numbered squares on the upper right turn white.
Click on each of the squares (one at a time) to see where the storm will be at that forecast hour, about where the most severe wind and rain will be located and precipitation per hour..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
For instance, as of this morning, the current modeling for next Monday Sept 17 shows it to be visiting Ky, but clicking on the numbered boxes one size smaller, you can see it's path thru the very Northern part of Ga, tho it doesn't look like the center will be any farther south than SC.


----------



## OneFineAcre

I saw the new track this morning, it's a relief for us. We are as ready as we can be.

 Sorry for the people who will be in it's new path.


----------



## Latestarter

Best wishes to all you folks in and east of the Appalachians. I guess there's about zero chance of it turning away, so a lot of folks somewhere over there on the east coast and inland are gonna have to deal with it. I hope you've prepared appropriately. If I recollect, Hugo was a cat 3 that intensified to a cat 5 "overnight" right before landfall. Hoping this isn't a repeat...


----------



## greybeard

Just because it has been downgraded doesn't mean anyone is out of the woods. Ike, was a Cat 2 when it made landfall.

The Atlantic Ocean and it's associated seas and Gulf is a busy place right now. Doesn't include the 2 areas of disturbed weather that just came off the West African continent...


----------



## Bunnylady

People get so fixated on the wind speed; they forget that such winds are often present only in one area of the eye wall, and as they are often extrapolated, not actually measured, sometimes they may not even exist (at least at ground level). The lower wind speed _is_ good news; it means fewer projectiles, fewer fallen trees, fewer power outages and quicker repairs. The extreme weather gang are going to be disappointed, of course; there will be few opportunities to get dramatic footage of roofs coming off, etc, in a Cat 2 storm, especially in this community that has earned our "hurricane resistant city" status many times over.

The story with Florence has always been about the water. Such a large storm will produce a storm surge that will affect a large area of the coast. Hopefully, a weakened storm will produce a bit less in that way; the beaches and barrier islands are still going to get pounded, but maybe some homes and businesses near the sounds will be spared.

And then, there's the rain - that's what has most people really worried. We've had a wet year already, so there isn't a whole lot of absorbing possible; even a typical summer thunderstorm creates localized flooding. It's a long stretch between North Carolina's beaches and the piedmont; the rivers that run through the coastal plain regularly leave their banks even without tropical involvement. The anticipated loss of steering currents and the subsequent stalling of Florence means an awful lot of rain for the coastal plains of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia for sure - though we'd never wish a storm on anyone else, the faster it leaves, the better for us.

While the downgrading of Florence by itself doesn't mean we get an easy ride, the reason for the decrease in energy is still very good news. This beast is sucking in dry air, which is penetrating all the way to the core. Whatever that may mean in meteorological circles, here on the ground it means that there are areas in this thing where it ISN'T raining. Less rain = less flooding. It may be just a flashlight, but when you are in the tunnel, any light is welcome!

Incidentally, Wilmington is 34.2104° N, 77.8868° W - those numbers may get relevant, if you are tracking the storm.


----------



## Southern by choice

Yes, and I believe it is only 1mph less than a 3. 
It really is the flooding and water that does the majority of the damage.
We are in the Piedmont area and we have pretty much had rain non stop since the spring. Wettest summer I can remember.
Everynight or late afternoon we have a thunderstorm. Our ground is completely saturated. So 5" or 12" - either way will cause flooding where we are too. 
Of course the coast is a huge concern, glad to see people evacuating.


----------



## greybeard

Lots of things come into play when talking about storm surge. It involves not just wind driven water but circulation driven water, and of course the slope/depth of the seabed approaching the coast and how many inlets and estuaries are located in the 'dirty' quadrant all play important parts...as well as how populated and developed those inlets and estuaries are.

You can have a downgraded category and still have significant flooding.
Ike for instance,  is said to have "made landfall as a Cat 2 hurricane with a cat 4 storm surge".

As far as winds go, an eyewall collapse or even one of the embedded Tstorms collapsing in the western quadrant can present wind gusts far higher than the measured sustained winds. Both collapses often occur when the storm begins to interact with land.

When Hurrican Gustav crossed Cuba in 2008, as a Cat 4 storms with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, an eyewall collapse occurred and a wind gust set a new world record for the Atlantic region of 211 mph. May have been higher gusts after that, but the anemometer blew down.


----------



## Donna R. Raybon

North Georgia folks look out!  Flood is on its way!  Here in eastern Tennessee valley we are predicted up to 3 inches of rain with 6 inches in mountains!  TVA has been dropping lake levels in a hurry here to mitigate flooding.


----------



## Bunnylady

And so it begins. Tornado warnings posted for areas near New Bern.


----------



## Latestarter

Hang on all you folks in the affected areas...


----------



## farmerjan

We are supposed to get rain and some winds but nothing like originally forecast.  Won't get to us much before Sat or Sun now.  The funny thing is, all week it has been cloudy, and so STILL it is just weird... like hushed anticipation.  Today started out the same, then we have had patches of sun and blue skies showing through.  I did some laundry and hung the jeans out and they are half dry already.  Just a whisper of a breeze now.  About as prepared as I guess I can be.  On the way home from testing cows last evening saw a whole caravan of electric bucket trucks headed south on I-81.... There will be alot of that in the next day or two.


----------



## Latestarter

Getting close...


----------



## greybeard

Bunnylady said:


> And so it begins. Tornado warnings posted for areas near New Bern.


Fond memories of New Bern...not.
(stationed at Mag14 Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Sta in 69 and part of '70)


----------



## Donna R. Raybon

Cherokee Dam had all spillage open first time since 1990.  News said TVA generating as hard as they can and spilling!


----------



## greybeard

Donna R. Raybon said:


> Cherokee Dam had all spillage open first time since 1990.  News said TVA generating as hard as they can and spilling!



Are there any nuclear power plants in NC/SC or central GA?
Loss of outside/offsite power can present them with problems...


----------



## Bunnylady

There are a number of nuclear plants in the Southeast. Duke Energy owns/runs the Brunswick Nuclear Plant a few miles south of us, and several others. Brunswick has the same type of reactor as the ones at Fukushima Daiichi. Though they say they have backups for backups for backups, out of an abundance of caution, they have shut the reactors down until conditions return to normal. Coal ash pits at the coal-fired plants have been pumped down, as have hog waste lagoons and other potential sources of massive amounts of pollutants. Whether enough has been done to avoid an environmental disaster like Floyd, only time will tell.


----------



## farmerjan

Latest map predictions show it coming ashore, and then after traveling into SC/GA turning sharply to the north and going up through WVA and Pa and into NY.  Really crazy almost a 90* turn to the right and heading north.  Says we will only be getting rain through Tues or Wed now....


----------



## Mini Horses

Yep...not only the nuclear issues but, hog & chicken farms abound.   The water can only disburse that.    When we had the major hurricane/flood in '99 here, hogs drowned at many of the farms, storage bins swelled and broke open and so on.  What a mess that was for a long, long time.


----------



## Donna R. Raybon

One of the NOAA forecaster said this storm had followed a path unlike any other storm that later came ashore.  She said it was thought due to the changed warmer ocean currents making old data unreliable.
Dh found a live feed camera on Skillet Point that was horribly loud from wind and could not see anything for rain!  Stay safe!


----------



## Baymule

Y'all hunker down and stay safe.


----------



## greybeard

Cat1 now...
top sustained wind is 93mph...is this correct?

Considering N. Carolina has had more than 400 hurricanes, tropical and sub-tropical storms in it''s history, this one won't be the only one that traveled this path.


----------



## Bunnylady

Sorry, my ears aren't tuned in well enough to be able to narrow it down to a few mph, but that sounds about right. 
Getting a bit punchy - the power has just gone out.


----------



## greybeard

news at 11pm cst said 200k without electrity..


----------



## Baymule

Y'all hang in there! In hurricane Rita, with a house full of people and our little town swarmed with panic filled people that left Houston, I got a text from a friend in Arkansas. You have to be there to appreciate it, but he made us laugh like donkeys.

When you can't see the news, it's because you ARE the news!


----------



## greybeard

Bunnylady said:


> Incidentally, Wilmington is 34.2104° N, 77.8868° W - those numbers may get relevant, if you are tracking the storm.



Indeed they did get relevant..At 9am, EDT, the eye was at 34N, 78W which looks to be very close to directly over Willmington. and it appears you had 105mph wind gusts this morning. 




I'm assuming, you are unable to post this morning, probably for good reason.
I do hope you are safe.





40 inches of rain possible for Wilmington.......BTDT, it ain't good.




For those who have never been thru a large slow moving storm like this, @ 6mph, it takes hours and hours for it to pass. Steady winds of or nearing hurricane force, with stronger gusts, for up to 8-10 hours. Even strongly built structures can only take so much of that constant battering.


----------



## greybeard

Baymule said:


> When you can't see the news, it's because you ARE the news!


Florence makes landfall 10 miles South of  Wilmington NC


----------



## greybeard

Amazing.....notice, the electricity & lights are is still on.
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1040484257737715717


----------



## OneFineAcre

We've lost power and our weather hasn't been that bad yet
Not a good sign
We have a co-op and 51% in my zip code don't have power


----------



## OneFineAcre

greybeard said:


> Are there any nuclear power plants in NC/SC or central GA?
> Loss of outside/offsite power can present them with problems...


Duke Energy has several in the Carolinas
Shearan Harris is outside of Raleigh
I think they shut them down


----------



## OneFineAcre

These guys lost their home to hurricane Florence
Found them on the ground about to drown 




Coke bottle has warm water


----------



## Southern by choice

Awww that is sweet. Ya ole softy.


----------



## babsbag

What are they?


----------



## OneFineAcre

babsbag said:


> What are they?


Squirrels


----------



## Baymule

Are they weaned or do you think they are still nursing? Poor babies! You did good picking them up, can't walk away and let them drown.


----------



## Hens and Roos

for everyone


----------



## OneFineAcre

Baymule said:


> Are they weaned or do you think they are still nursing? Poor babies! You did good picking them up, can't walk away and let them drown.



No they aren't weaned
Eyes still closed
They are good size though body about 5-6 inches
I think they are close to opening eyes
We talked to a re-hab person
They said since we have goats milk they have a chance
They stood 0 chance in the yard


----------



## babsbag

I would have done the same...always rooting for the underdog, or squirrel in this case. Poor babies, it is good of you to try.


----------



## OneFineAcre

So a real wildlife rehab expert is taking the squirrels in the morning


----------



## Baymule

OneFineAcre said:


> So a real wildlife rehab expert is taking the squirrels in the morning


You kinda have enough on your mind right about now.


----------



## goatgurl

poor little tree rats, I hope they make it.  stay safe


----------



## greybeard

It's never a good time for animals. I did find a drowned adult squirrel the day after our flood, which I found puzzling as they can climb anything.

I tried to watch the weather news on TV last night, but it's so drama queened up, I found it more precise and realistic  to look on internet sources. Not to downplay the dangers or heartbreak, but this is making the rounds this morning:
The introduction says:
"_The Weather Channel caught manufacturing the story of strong winds in hurricane Florence. Watch this fool fighting to stand up to the hurricane when two dudes come strolling by._"


----------



## Baymule

Wondering how everybody is this morning.....


----------



## farmerjan

Other than the constant continuous grey cloudy skies and "stillness",  we are getting some rain. Mostly light showers, comes and goes, some harder quick downpours but then stops.  Except for the little bit of sun we saw on Thursday when I hung out the jeans on the clothesline, it has been a constant monotone of grey skies for over a week.  The funniest - weirdest - thing has been the absence of the birds singing or anything.  It has been so quiet in the nature department.  Even my chickens don't make many crowing noises.  Like they are hushed waiting for the other shoe to drop. 
Did catch ANOTHER possum trying to get into the chickens.  That makes like 7 or 8 or something this summer.... Don't think I have ever seen so many...
Now we are supposed to get more rain as it moves further inland and around to head north.  Flooding and heavier rain as the weekend goes on.  We are pretty wet now so that will be a given on the flooding.  
My son says that they are expecting for VDOT to get called to send trucks and help down into the Carolinas when he goes to work on Monday.


----------



## Baymule

Thanks for checking in and letting us know what is happening with you. Hope the flooding is minimal in your area.


----------



## Southern by choice

We are good here. Rain expected til Tuesday. Thankfully we have been really spared. Just 10 miles south of us has been hit pretty hard. I will say when the alerts go off they are deafening. Lots of Tornado watches. Flooding is a big issue. We are suppose to have some gusts throughout the day. Very thankful.
We have locked up all the goats and LGD's that are in the woods because of possible trees falling. I am very impressed. None of these dogs have ever been stalled or locked up. They are not happy but they are not climbing out, digging , barking or anything. Milking late this morning.


----------



## Mini Horses

Same here -- overcast for days, light to heavy rains off & on.  Animals are all good, sheltering in place with ample large, dry run-ins.  Wet grass tho.   Minis don't care, goats are eating hay, afraid to get a shower.   I am another THANKFUL one.  

Feel so badly for those in Southern Carolinas!   It will be months before they recover.   Tough times now & for several weeks.  It appears no electric for weeks, for most.

There is some minor flooding along the local coastal neighboroods, not near me.  The rivers nearby are high, not overbank yet.  A few isolated low road areas have light issues.

farmerjan, you are right...animals on alert, quiet, probably sheltering in place.   My chickens staying close to coops.  All good.


----------



## OneFineAcre

We are good here
Lost power for a couple of hours yesterday
Things are pretty bleak 50 miles south of us
There has been catastrophic flooding
The worse areas are still getting a lot of rain
An inch up to 3 inches per hour
Just torrential rain
The storm is barely moving


----------



## Baymule

SBC and OFA it is good to hear from you both. Thanks for checking in and letting us know that you are safe.


----------



## OneFineAcre

3 of my employees are in Lumberton and Fayetteville
Both areas are experiencing serious flooding on the Lumber and Cape Fear rivers.
I just checked on them and they are ok for now 
We also have some NCDGBA members in some areas that were hit hard 
Trying to check up on them now 
Keep them in your prayers


----------



## frustratedearthmother

Hope everyone comes out of this ok.


----------



## Southern by choice

OneFineAcre said:


> We are good here
> Lost power for a couple of hours yesterday
> Things are pretty bleak 50 miles south of us
> There has been catastrophic flooding
> The worse areas are still getting a lot of rain
> An inch up to 3 inches per hour
> Just torrential rain
> The storm is barely moving


 I've been watching the FB post - Do you know how the Brown's are?
Trying to check on Mrs Ruth but phone lines are down.


----------



## OneFineAcre

Southern by choice said:


> I've been watching the FB post - Do you know how the Brown's are?
> Trying to check on Mrs Ruth but phone lines are down.


We haven't heard from the Browns or Bryants
Cole has tried to call both 
Also the Waldmans in Whiteville it looked like the eye wall sat on  top of Whiteville forever
Someone was going to try to get to their place to check on them


----------



## Southern by choice

OneFineAcre said:


> We haven't heard from the Browns or Bryants
> Cole has tried to call both
> Also the Waldmans in Whiteville it looked like the eye wall sat on  top of Whiteville forever
> Someone was going to try to get to their place to check on them



Mrs Ruth is good. 
It is starting to flood  about 1/8 mile south of us.  Still raining pretty hard here. 
Glad you all have had the worst pass. 
All the folks East and South sure are really dealing with alot.


----------



## farmerjan

We are getting some squalls now, quick downpours then stopping.  Even saw a little sun peeking through for awhile this afternoon.  Very thankful we did not get the brunt but it makes me feel even worse that others got hit with it so bad.  It is supposed to get more serious Sun and Mon and some flooding but nothing like what they have had in S.C.. 

Have had 3 new calves in the past 3 days and then my son found a premie baby this late afternoon.  Cow has no milk, about a month early I'd say.  I did get it to take a qt of colostrum and it had sucking and swallowing reflexes so there is some hope.  It is an old cow so she will go.  Will see if we can save this guy.  Weighs about 25-30 lbs, hooves are soft but formed so there is a chance if he can get going.

They seem to go into labor more often when there is a change in the atmospheric pressure.... I was encouraged that he did suck and swallow on his own.  I don't like to tube them and not when they are this small. Too weak to stand, but as long as he swallows, feeding him laying down is okay.   He is now at the barn and under cover.  At least it isn't a cold nasty rain and the temps have been between 70 and 78 the last 3 days so no chance of a chill.


----------



## OneFineAcre

Southern by choice said:


> Mrs Ruth is good.
> It is starting to flood  about 1/8 mile south of us.  Still raining pretty hard here.
> Glad you all have had the worst pass.
> All the folks East and South sure are really dealing with alot.



We heard the Waldmans  had to evacuate
They let their animals loose
We are seeing if we can help


----------



## Goat Whisperer

OneFineAcre said:


> We heard the Waldmans  had to evacuate
> They let their animals loose
> We are seeing if we can help


I just heard too. 
Please keep us updated. 
Such nice people. I am devastated for them. 
Let me know as soon as you hear anything. 
I just cannot imagine.


----------



## Southern by choice

Just heartbroken.


----------



## goatgurl

I know all we can do is pray.  youall stay safe.  you know we worry about all of you in that area as well as everyone that is going thru this.  thanks for letting us know you're ok.


----------



## greybeard

Looting in Willmington.
https://abc11.com/looters-raid-family-dollar-and-dollar-general-in-wilmington/4254666/


----------



## greybeard

The storm's current location is actually centered in South Carolina, just SW of Columbia, but the rain bands extend for 150 miles in some directions. By late today the storm will be approaching the GA/NC/Tenn/SC border area and the Eastern NC coastal effects should begin to wind down somewhat and repairs/relief efforts begin in earnest..
It may be several days to several weeks before power is restored in the most damaged areas.

I'm colorblind so these type maps don't serve me well but it was supposedly accurate according to Duke Energy as of 6am cdt today.
https://abc11.com/weather/power-out...rop-as-crews-work-to-restore-service/4233672/


----------



## OneFineAcre

If the news has said it once they have said it 1000 times
Don't drive through standing water
And people keep on drowning in their cars


----------



## Baymule

OneFineAcre said:


> We heard the Waldmans  had to evacuate
> They let their animals loose
> We are seeing if we can help


That has to be devastating. If I had to load up all my animals, there wouldn't be enough room in the trailer. I hope I never have to be faced with letting the animals loose and running for my life. Those poor people. That is heartbreaking. Please update us on this family. My prayers go out to them.


----------



## OneFineAcre

Baymule said:


> That has to be devastating. If I had to load up all my animals, there wouldn't be enough room in the trailer. I hope I never have to be faced with letting the animals loose and running for my life. Those poor people. That is heartbreaking. Please update us on this family. My prayers go out to them.



The people are safe
The Waldmans are an older couple in their 70's
He's a retired pediatrician
There was food and water for the goats for several days
But as of now they can't get back to check on the animals
When they left all of the barns and roofs were intact
So, we are all hoping for the best
They have one of the best Alpine herds around
Nodaway French Alpines


----------



## Baymule

I am glad that they are safe.


----------



## Bunnylady

Well, we've survived. Major mess, no power yet, just got phones back this evening. But there's something about seeing a medivac chopper skimming your treetops taking the shortest, fastest route to the hospital that makes anything we're dealing with seem minor.


----------



## greybeard

yes,I bet it is and it will be a 'mess' for some time to come. It does get better after awhile.


----------



## farmerjan

So glad to know that you are safe.  Hope that others will be able to look at it as you do and be thankful that it could have been worse.  We missed the brunt of it and have minor flooding and road closures, no power out in this area but some further south.  Had a tornado warning yesterday about an hour southeast that was a little scary, but we were lucky to miss the bulk of it.


----------



## Bunnylady

We have a whole bunch of this 

 Hubby has about run out of fuel for the chainsaw.


----------



## BlessedWithGoats




----------



## Baymule

@Bunnylady I am glad that y'all are safe. Nothing else matters. The mess can be dealt with, any damage can be dealt with, but the important thing is that y'all are safe.


----------



## greybeard

Bunnylady said:


> View attachment 52238
> We have a whole bunch of this.


Yuck. Brings back bad memories. Once you get the pine tree top off the barn, make sure to sweep the needles of and  you really should do so 1x/year going forward. The needles hold a lot of moisture and lead to rust problems even on galvanize, not to mention impeding water flow off the roof, which allows leakage around the roof joints and fasteners.


----------



## Sheepshape

Sorry to hear of the damage that the latest round of Wild Weather has caused.

Hopefully the worst is now over and the clearing up can be done.

Nature can be SO destructive.


----------



## Bunnylady

greybeard said:


> Yuck. Brings back bad memories. Once you get the pine tree top off the barn, make sure to sweep the needles of and  you really should do so 1x/year going forward. The needles hold a lot of moisture and lead to rust problems even on galvanize, not to mention impeding water flow off the roof, which allows leakage around the roof joints and fasteners.



Florence pretty much settled the pine needle problem there, I think. I'm not sure there are any pines close enough to drop needles on that one any more. Probably won't have to get pine needles out of the gutter on the house any more, either.- the last tree at one end of the house is on the trampoline, while at the other end the tree is leaning so badly it'll have to be taken down .


----------



## Mini Horses

Baymule said:


> . The mess can be dealt with, any damage can be dealt with, but the important thing is that y'all are safe.



I agree and glad all humans are ok.   Assume animals are also, as I have heard nothing contrary.  Yes, what a mess to clean up!!

Water scares me with unseen powers in these happenings.  The strength of the torrents is just unbelievable.  Fast and unrelenting, unstoppable.


----------



## Baymule

Bunnylady said:


> Florence pretty much settled the pine needle problem there, I think. I'm not sure there are any pines close enough to drop needles on that one any more. Probably won't have to get pine needles out of the gutter on the house any more, either.- the last tree at one end of the house is on the trampoline, while at the other end the tree is leaning so badly it'll have to be taken down .


Better the trampoline that the house. At our old house, we were surrounded by large oaks. Hurricanes, old age and hurricane damage brought them down. Many were taken down to keep them from falling. We sure missed their shade in the heat of the summer. 

The good part here is that they didn't fall on the house. The bad part is that you will miss the shade they provided.


----------



## farmerjan

OneFineAcre said:


> We heard the Waldmans  had to evacuate
> They let their animals loose
> We are seeing if we can help


I don't know them, but did you find out anything about the Waldmans?  It is especially tough to be older and have to leave and not know how your animals are doing.  Because you know you are not as capable to do things that will need doing as a younger stronger person..... Believe me, I know now since having the joint issues, that I am not as capable as I was 2-3 years ago.


----------



## Bunnylady

Baymule said:


> Better the trampoline that the house. At our old house, we were surrounded by large oaks. Hurricanes, old age and hurricane damage brought them down. Many were taken down to keep them from falling. We sure missed their shade in the heat of the summer.
> 
> The good part here is that they didn't fall on the house. The bad part is that you will miss the shade they provided.


Not just the shade; the character they added will be missed. There are a lot fewer trees than when we moved here. Some, we worked pretty hard to keep. Disease and insects have taken quite a few, as has lightning. The tree on the shed roof got hit in a storm this past summer




We had hoped maybe since the charge took the last few feet through the shed, the tree might be spared, but it was beginning to discolor, so we knew it would have to go. Dropping it without damage was going to be tricky . . . Obviously, Florence wasn't as picky about placement. The big pine at the end of the chicken run got snapped, too


It got hit a couple of years ago. Maybe the wood got weakened somehow. My "skyline" keeps changing - this time, in a major way.


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## Latestarter

The advantage of pines is they are soft wood, so they have some "give" in the wind and can bend up to a point... The disadvantage is they are soft wood, so they aren't as strong/sturdy as hardwood, and as a result are more prone to diseases that weaken them (further) and they "snap/break" easier under heavy wind loads. The hard woods don't snap very often but are more prone to having their root balls pulled up as the whole tree goes over. Sorry you have so much damage there, but glad it wasn't worse, and no human/animal casualties. If the "skyline" never changed, you might get bored with it.   Hope all the folks mentioned who had worse issues pulled through OK.


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## greybeard

I broke ground for this house Nov 10 2008, 58 days after Hurricane Ike came thru. I made sure there isn't a tree in my yard or close enough to it to fall on my house, shop or closest barn. If I want shade, I'll sit on the porch or in the house where the A/C. 

This is what trees are good for IMO, and falling on fences and cars and houses. Had 2 of these to clean up in pastures, about 100' feet from each other after a straight line windstorm in 2015, both tops caught up on a high stump. Weren't fun.


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## OneFineAcre

farmerjan said:


> I don't know them, but did you find out anything about the Waldmans?  It is especially tough to be older and have to leave and not know how your animals are doing.  Because you know you are not as capable to do things that will need doing as a younger stronger person..... Believe me, I know now since having the joint issues, that I am not as capable as I was 2-3 years ago.



As of this morning, they still have not been able to get back to their property.
They are under a lot of stress not knowing if their animals are OK.


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## Goat Whisperer

Just got news that they were able to get back to the farm today and all the animals are alive and well. The water never made it into the barn.


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## OneFineAcre

Goat Whisperer said:


> Just got news that they were able to get back to the farm today and all the animals are alive and well. The water never made it into the barn.



Just saw that myself.
Great news.


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## Bunnylady

I'm sure they will rest better tonight for knowing that, whatever else they have to deal with.


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## Goat Whisperer

@Bunnylady I'm glad you are ok! How are the animals taking it all?


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## Wehner Homestead

I’m so glad that everyone seems to be faring decently. I hate that it’s having to be dealt with but so thankful the losses haven’t been greater.


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## Bunnylady

Goat Whisperer said:


> @Bunnylady I'm glad you are ok! How are the animals taking it all?





 
I think his face says it all.

The horses are dealing pretty well. My two ancient goats are convinced that they have died and gone to goat hell - particularly since the mini mule is still around  (Betsy has been known to attack them at random moments when she's frustrated and anxious). The chickens may be so stressed they have stopped laying - but then, a lot of them are molting, so egg numbers are down, anyway


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## Wehner Homestead

@Bunnylady


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## Mini Horses

Goat Whisperer said:


> Just got news that they were able to get back to the farm today and all the animals are alive and well. The water never made it into the barn.



Great news!!  A lot of us were concerned -- and don't even know them!   But we all know "could have been me!" lurks in our mind.   Not knowing is so very stressful -- thrilled all is good!

Uhhh.  bunnylady, is that a new pond beyond the lazing cat????    Or, is that the new goat pasture?   Whoa -- bet the ARE upset.


YES -- my chickens are molting also but, things like these storms will make them stop laying.   The heat has played havoc with mineover past month or so.  Good news is that some of them went on into molt, others held off.  As you know, that helps provide at least "some" eggs as they switch in & out.


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## farmerjan

So glad to hear they were able to get back to the farm and all the animals are doing okay.  They will be able to sleep better and you can deal with things when you know what it is to be dealing with.  
Glad too, that @Bunnylady  you are able to deal with things there.  It doesn't look like you had alot of serious damage from the trees that came down.  Like nothing collapsed  or big holes in roofs?   

THIS TOO WILL PASS.......


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## Mike CHS

That much rain is devastating no matter where you are.


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## greybeard

Bunnylady said:


> View attachment 52247
> I think his face says it all.
> 
> The horses are dealing pretty well. My two ancient goats are convinced that they have died and gone to goat hell - particularly since the mini mule is still around  (Betsy has been known to attack them at random moments when she's frustrated and anxious). The chickens may be so stressed they have stopped laying - but then, a lot of them are molting, so egg numbers are down, anyway


Is that pond in the background usually there?


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## goatgurl

some years from now this storm will be a 'remember when' story but right now there is a lot of work to do.  you stay strong @Bunnylady.  and you're right the cats face says it all.
  met the waldmans a thousand years ago and am so thankful that their animals are ok.  I can't imagine the stress of having to leave them and you are so right @OneFineAcre their alpines are beautiful.


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## Bunnylady

greybeard said:


> Is that pond in the background usually there?



Not usually, no. That area is pretty low, so it isn't unusual to have water standing there after a big rain, but this is the most we have ever seen. At the time that picture was taken, the water had actually receded a bit; it had been about halfway up the lawn behind the cat.


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## Sumi

@Bunnylady, so glad to hear you all are o.k. I've been following this thread on and off over the last few days and am thinking of you all.


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## Wehner Homestead

Wow! That’s a lot of water!


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## Baymule

After the news cameras leave and the latest story takes it's place on the TV news, all this is forgotten in the public eye. People go back home to the mess and the real work begins. The clean up and repairs can be for months, years or so devastated that it's just time to move and start over. It is a tough situation for many to deal with. Some never recover from the loss. 

I am delighted for that couple that their goats are safe. What a relief that must be. They sure had a lot of people here that they don't even know, praying for them.


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## greybeard

Looks like NC lost as many as 5 million birds...poultry. I haven't seen an official estimate on swine yet but some of the talking heads on TV are saying around 6000 hogs. 

Flood/home  Insurance and vehicle insurance losses have been downgraded significantly after Florence dropped to a Cat 1 instead of the cat 4 as earlier predicted to come ashore, but still estimated to reach 2.5-3 billion dollars.
Economic losses will be much higher, as businesses shut down either temporarily or permanently,  tourism will be off, & the state's GDP goes way down except for the construction sector. Ag losses are going to be a pretty big chunk of the total loss. Sweet potatoes, tobacco, cotton harvests and other crops were not complete before the storm. 
Estimates I see this morning are trending toward a total of around $27 billion total losses, which includes job lost income.

Human loss is bad, with the death and agony from the flood damages not able to be seen or quantified in $$.


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## greybeard

Rain is probable to the US East coast. Invest 98L, 230nautical miles south of Cape Hatteras. Current movement to the WNW is indicated but not a sure thing.






_
A broad 1014 mb low is centered about 230 nm south of Cape
Hatteras near 31n75w. A surface trough extends SW from the low to
28n76w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is NE of the
center from 30n-34n between 70w-76w. Satellite data indicate that
the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized.
However, this system could still become a tropical depression
later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and
Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong
upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-
northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours._


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## Bunnylady

Interestingly, the energy that is the core of invest 98 came from the remnants of Florence. Came back to survey her handiwork, no doubt.


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## Baymule

Y'all sure don't need MORE rain!


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## Mini Horses

Not only are homeowners & farmers in a huge loss, just think of the thousands of "everyday" renters who will have no where to go, possibly no jobs, no vehicles, just devastation.   

Crop & animal loss will certainly affect more than just those locally.   Prices will rise at the grocery stores.


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## greybeard

Baymule said:


> Y'all sure don't need MORE rain!


When adversity threatens, I always remember this quote from the :59 minutes point.


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## Bunnylady

Mini Horses said:


> Not only are homeowners & farmers in a huge loss, just think of the thousands of "everyday" renters who will have no where to go, possibly no jobs, no vehicles, just devastation.



The local news had a story just today about 60-odd apartments in one complex near UNCW that had been damaged to the point they were unlivable.  There's a development near us where a bunch of houses are being gutted because the water rose high enough to enter the houses. My husband's opinion is that the builder ought to be on the hook for some of that - when you have to dig ditches like young canyons to get the land dry enough to build on, ya think maybe that might be an indication that it isn't suitable for building?


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## Mini Horses

Not only is it a red flag to build, I'm wondering how he got permits to do so???  Our communities are very strict about such issues, as well as having a developer contribute to increased utilities and school areas, green areas, etc.


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## greybeard

If the city or county permits it according to regulations & rules, and their inspectors pass it, then they are the ones that should be "on the hook".
However, there is a thing called 'reasonable risk' which basically says if that area hasn't seen high water in over 100 years  (sometimes 500 yrs) then it is 'reasonable' to assume the risk is relatively low that it will.

If everything and everywhere that 'could' flood never gets approved for buildings, most of the US East Coast and Gulf Coast would be barren of any population centers.

Having said that, if someone chooses to live in a low lying are, then it is ultimately and  always their choice and their doing to do so. No one holds a gun to anyone's head  and tells them they have to live in a low lying or flood risk area. 
I do live in one, and I know. I can read a FEMA flood map and so can anyone else with 2 brain cells to rub together. My choice & responsibility entirely.


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## Baymule

greybeard said:


> If the city or county permits it according to regulations & rules, and their inspectors pass it, then they are the ones that should be "on the hook".
> However, there is a thing called 'reasonable risk' which basically says if that area hasn't seen high water in over 100 years  (sometimes 500 yrs) then it is 'reasonable' to assume the risk is relatively low that it will.
> 
> If everything and everywhere that 'could' flood never gets approved for buildings, most of the US East Coast and Gulf Coast would be barren of any population centers.
> 
> Having said that, if someone chooses to live in a low lying are, then it is ultimately and  always their choice and their doing do do so.
> I do, and I know. I can read a FEMA flood map and so can anyone else with 2 brain cells to rub together. My choice & responsibility entirely.


You ought to know about flood zones if anybody does. My sister lives in a flood zone. I wish she'd move.


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## Bunnylady

But see, this isn't a flood zone in the usual sense; we are far enough from bodies of water for that. But the soils are hydric, and the native vegetation is largely species that are found in wetlands (including at least 5 species of carnivorous plants). There are some places where the peat layer is several feet deep. But cut down the trees, get your bulldozer to rearrange things a bit, and who's going to know that their house stands on a place that used to have a vernal pool every summer? There's a reason these areas weren't developed years ago; the soil has zero drainage, so septic fields couldn't be put in. The letter of the law might be met by ditches, drains, and retention ponds, but when the water has nowhere further to go, it goes into the houses. I suspect a lot of these homeowners had no idea that their homes were at risk.


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## greybeard

All coastal soils are hydric to one degree or another. 
It's no big secret...........can't be, since it seems everyone there was aware of it, otherwise it wouldn't be brought up in discussions on the internet. (Maybe those who were aware of it should be sued for not speaking out BEFORE the problem surface) 


Houston has the same drainage problem, and New Orleans even more so. (Both are nearly 90 miles from the gulf). Houston has no big body of water or lake around it. 
But doesn't matter one bit if anything is near a river or other waterway or lake. When you get that much rain, in that short a period of time, and the natural drainage target is high (Atlantic Ocean) you can expect problems. 
No matter where one lives, life is a gamble. 

2 words.
Due diligence.
Do the best we can and get on with our miserable little lives and try not to go pointing fingers and looking for a lawsuit payout when Ma Nature comes a callin, which IMO, is one of the things that is wrong with this nation anyway nowadays.


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## Bunnylady

greybeard said:


> it seems everyone there was aware of it



"Everyone?" Probably not. Actually, you could probably narrow it down to the people who know what a poquosin is, and can recognize one (before the vegetation is removed, of course). You'd have to further thin the pool to those who have been living in the area long enough to know what the terrain looked like before the builder bought it and cleared it, and since a poquosin in its natural condition is a nearly impenetrable jungle, even the kids that seem to roam everywhere might not know _that_ patch of woods.

A local builder had to buy back and demolish a whole row of houses in a nearby development because, even with that massive ditch behind them, the yards frequently had standing water, and the houses had mold and cracks in the walls from subsidence. These guys see acreage, and all they think about is how many houses they can squeeze onto it. Low spot? What low spot? I don't see a low spot! If there _was_ a low spot, I'd have to work around that, because of it being a wetland and protected by law, but there aren't any low spots here, as you can plainly see since there is nothing but raw level ground in any direction you look.

(And the way you get around around the whole wetland protection thing, is you replace the naturally occurring wetland with "wetland" in a place of _your_ choosing, which, since developments are now expected to deal with their own run-off, means retention ponds that can provide fill for those low spots that might or might not have existed before the bulldozer cleared the whole site)

I agree that one should know what they are getting into before they get into it, but should you really need to get a degree in hydrology and coastal ecosystems before you buy a starter home? When the whole area already has streets and disquietingly similar houses on it, it's kind of hard to spot the historic (as in, less than 10 years ago) drainage pattern. Around here, just a few inches can be the difference between high and dry, and replacing the flooring and drywall. Maybe those homeowners should have taken it as a warning to sell out and move to higher ground when the roadbed a couple of blocks down the street turned to mush after a non-tropical rainy spell this past Spring, but if they thought about it at all, they probably thought the builder simply hadn't done a proper job of laying down the foundation of the road in the first place (which is probably true).

I, too, am annoyed by the way that people seem to immediately look around for a lawyer the moment anything in life doesn't go their way, but shouldn't there be_ some_ recourse against the P. T. Barnums of this world? Naturally, the builder wants to make money (doesn't everyone?), but should they be allowed to take the money and run, leaving the homeowners, their insurance companies, and the county/city taxpayers to pay the bills when the marginal land they built on behaves as it always has?

But on a much sunnier note, invest 98 hasn't managed to develop into anything serious, only produced a little bit of rain in the coastal counties, and is now on its way outta here!


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## greybeard

Bunnylady said:


> but if they thought about it at all, they probably thought the builder simply hadn't done a proper job of laying down the foundation of the road in the first place (which is probably true).


That seems to be a recurring theme there.
Never believe everything ya think. It's not rocket surgery.
Or, blame business, or govt, or somebody, everybody, anybody but themselves.  


Bunnylady said:


> I agree that one should know what they are getting into before they get into it, but should you really need to get a degree in hydrology and coastal ecosystems before you buy a starter home?


No, you hire someone that does...before you buy. The smart people do anyway. Everyone else charges ahead blindly and deserve whatever they get.


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## Mike CHS

Bunnylady said:


> But on a much sunnier note, invest 98 hasn't managed to develop into anything serious, only produced a little bit of rain in the coastal counties, and is now on its way outta here!



You folks in North Carolina have to be getting sick of rain.  I'm not griping but we have had almost solid rain for 3 days.


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## Baymule

In Livingston we had black clay. Harder than concrete when dry, mud that would suck you out of sight when wet. The slab on our house was cracked, rather badly. We had our house inspected and told the buyer about the slab. We lowballed the price because we didn't want to still have it hanging around our necks a year later because we were holding out for more money. The slab didn't bother the buyer one bit, it is a common thing in that area. 

The land we owned where our horses were was black clay. It stuck to my boots when wet, every step my boots got bigger and bigger. Horrible stuff, I don't miss it one bit. It was even worse ground that where our house was. 

Now we are on sand. NO MUD. 

I was raised in Houston. Same black clay that cracked open in the summer, swelled shut in the winter rains. It moved houses and cracked slabs. People new to the area had no idea about that black clay and often bought homes with cracked slabs. Nowadays inspectors do a much better jobs and people are a little better protected. But low ground will always be low ground. Flat ground with little to no drainage will get soggy and give problems. 

Where ever you live, conditions will not be perfect. All you can do is the best you can do.


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## Simpleterrier

And that folks is why I live in ohio


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## Mike CHS

I spent most of my life on the Atlantic and Gulf Coast and after more hurricanes than I can remember, so I decided to retire where I was living on the highest elevation around and all water sources were a long way downhill from where I lived.


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## Simpleterrier

If my house floods or my foundation moves. It will be the end of times.


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## Baymule

The highest elevation in our county is 671 feet. We are not far from there and elevation on our place is right at 600'. May not sound very high to some of you, but I'll take it.


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## greybeard

_If my house floods or my foundation moves. It will be the end of times._

Lots and lots of people all over the continent and US have said the same thing......or something very close. No matter where ya live, there's always a volcano, or earthquake, or hurricane or tornado, Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out life on our own miserable part of the world and the only way we get on with our happy little lives is we...don't... know... about it, but if we do find out about it, we  have to find someone to blame and get to pay for it. Cha CHING!

http://geosurvey.ohiodnr.gov/earthquakes-ohioseis/quakes-felt-in-ohio/recent-ohio-regional-quakes


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## Bunnylady

greybeard said:


> we have to find someone to blame and get to pay for it. Cha CHING!



Yep. And then we blow it all in a heartbeat and wind up just as happy and just as little, only now, even our families don't talk to us anymore.

Life is about the choices you make. Yes, if I leave a tree standing on my property, it has a chance of falling on anything else within the radius of its length.  But if I cut all of the trees down, I lose the chance of meetings like this:




To me, that matters. (Though I must admit, the turtle doesn't look too pleased to have made my acquaintance)

Even without the Arquillians or the Vogons or scheming Slitheen, life throws plenty of hazards our way. The difference is some are large scale and spectacular, while others are one-on-one. Die of a flesh eating bacteria, and you probably won't even make the local news, unless you are a celebrity or it can be tied to something even more celebrated like a hurricane. And as Mark Twain pointed out, there's that hazard that no one talks about, your own bed!


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## frustratedearthmother

Baymule said:


> The highest elevation in our county is 671 feet. We are not far from there and elevation on our place is right at 600'. May not sound very high to some of you, but I'll take it.


Sounds much better than the 30ish feet that I'm at!!! YIKES!


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## Bunnylady

frustratedearthmother said:


> Sounds much better than the 30ish feet that I'm at!!! YIKES!



The real question is, what's higher than you? If almost everything, well, yeah, you've got a problem.

When we bought our property, we knew what we were buying (certain very expensive hours in classrooms . . . .). A "swamp on a hill" is still a swamp, at least potentially. We chose the location for the house carefully, and had it built on a 30" foundation (building on a slab is asking for trouble in soil that doesn't "perk"). Yes, we have to climb a few stairs to get into the house, but so would any flood waters. So far, those choices have proven to be the right ones; even Floyd and Florence's colossal rain totals haven't even lapped at the foundations.


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