Heads on a swivel you folks on Eastern Seaboard. Flo's coming.

[greybeard]

Just because it has been downgraded doesn't mean anyone is out of the woods. Ike, was a Cat 2 when it made landfall.

The Atlantic Ocean and it's associated seas and Gulf is a busy place right now. Doesn't include the 2 areas of disturbed weather that just came off the West African continent...

 

[Bunnylady]

People get so fixated on the wind speed; they forget that such winds are often present only in one area of the eye wall, and as they are often extrapolated, not actually measured, sometimes they may not even exist (at least at ground level). The lower wind speed is good news; it means fewer projectiles, fewer fallen trees, fewer power outages and quicker repairs. The extreme weather gang are going to be disappointed, of course; there will be few opportunities to get dramatic footage of roofs coming off, etc, in a Cat 2 storm, especially in this community that has earned our "hurricane resistant city" status many times over.

The story with Florence has always been about the water. Such a large storm will produce a storm surge that will affect a large area of the coast. Hopefully, a weakened storm will produce a bit less in that way; the beaches and barrier islands are still going to get pounded, but maybe some homes and businesses near the sounds will be spared.

And then, there's the rain - that's what has most people really worried. We've had a wet year already, so there isn't a whole lot of absorbing possible; even a typical summer thunderstorm creates localized flooding. It's a long stretch between North Carolina's beaches and the piedmont; the rivers that run through the coastal plain regularly leave their banks even without tropical involvement. The anticipated loss of steering currents and the subsequent stalling of Florence means an awful lot of rain for the coastal plains of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia for sure - though we'd never wish a storm on anyone else, the faster it leaves, the better for us.

While the downgrading of Florence by itself doesn't mean we get an easy ride, the reason for the decrease in energy is still very good news. This beast is sucking in dry air, which is penetrating all the way to the core. Whatever that may mean in meteorological circles, here on the ground it means that there are areas in this thing where it ISN'T raining. Less rain = less flooding. It may be just a flashlight, but when you are in the tunnel, any light is welcome!

Incidentally, Wilmington is 34.2104° N, 77.8868° W - those numbers may get relevant, if you are tracking the storm.

 

[Southern by choice]

Yes, and I believe it is only 1mph less than a 3.
It really is the flooding and water that does the majority of the damage.
We are in the Piedmont area and we have pretty much had rain non stop since the spring. Wettest summer I can remember.
Everynight or late afternoon we have a thunderstorm. Our ground is completely saturated. So 5" or 12" - either way will cause flooding where we are too.
Of course the coast is a huge concern, glad to see people evacuating.

 

[greybeard]

Lots of things come into play when talking about storm surge. It involves not just wind driven water but circulation driven water, and of course the slope/depth of the seabed approaching the coast and how many inlets and estuaries are located in the 'dirty' quadrant all play important parts...as well as how populated and developed those inlets and estuaries are.

You can have a downgraded category and still have significant flooding.
Ike for instance, is said to have "made landfall as a Cat 2 hurricane with a cat 4 storm surge".

As far as winds go, an eyewall collapse or even one of the embedded Tstorms collapsing in the western quadrant can present wind gusts far higher than the measured sustained winds. Both collapses often occur when the storm begins to interact with land.

When Hurrican Gustav crossed Cuba in 2008, as a Cat 4 storms with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, an eyewall collapse occurred and a wind gust set a new world record for the Atlantic region of 211 mph. May have been higher gusts after that, but the anemometer blew down.

 

[Donna R. Raybon]

North Georgia folks look out! Flood is on its way! Here in eastern Tennessee valley we are predicted up to 3 inches of rain with 6 inches in mountains! TVA has been dropping lake levels in a hurry here to mitigate flooding.

 

[Bunnylady]

And so it begins. Tornado warnings posted for areas near New Bern.

 

[Latestarter]

Hang on all you folks in the affected areas...

 

[farmerjan]

We are supposed to get rain and some winds but nothing like originally forecast. Won't get to us much before Sat or Sun now. The funny thing is, all week it has been cloudy, and so STILL it is just weird... like hushed anticipation. Today started out the same, then we have had patches of sun and blue skies showing through. I did some laundry and hung the jeans out and they are half dry already. Just a whisper of a breeze now. About as prepared as I guess I can be. On the way home from testing cows last evening saw a whole caravan of electric bucket trucks headed south on I-81.... There will be alot of that in the next day or two.

 

[Latestarter]

Getting close...

 

[greybeard]

And so it begins. Tornado warnings posted for areas near New Bern.

Fond memories of New Bern...not.
(stationed at Mag14 Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Sta in 69 and part of '70)